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All Quiet on the Warming Front
By Dr. Roy Cordato

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Sep. 30th, 2014

RALEIGH — The Watts Up With That blog reports that the no-global-warming trend now stands at 17 years, 11 months. This is in spite of the fact that carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric concentrations have continued to increase throughout this period.

When A is theorized to cause B, and repeatedly when A occurs and B does not, a scientist who is not driven by something other than the discovery of truth will either reject his theory or significantly revise it. In the field of climate science, unfortunately, we are seeing too many individuals who have ceased being scientists.

In the face of models that have all failed to predict this standstill in warming, the warmist modelers refuse to question their hypothesis.

In terms of the models, the graph below shows the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warming projections (red) for the last decade compared to the actual nonwarming reality.

Here are some key facts from Watts Up With That that run contrary to the so-called consensus view on global warming.

Key facts about global temperature

  • The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 215 months from October 1996 to August 2014. That is more than half the 428-month satellite record.

  • The fastest measured centennial warming rate was in Central England from 1663-1762, at 0.9 degrees Celsius/century — before the industrial revolution. It was not our fault.

  • The global warming trend since 1900 is equivalent to 0.8 degrees Celsisus per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with us.

  • The fastest measured warming trend lasting 10 years or more occurred over the 40 years from 1694-1733 in Central England. It was equivalent to 4.3 degrees Celsisus per century.

  • Since 1950, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below 1.2 degrees Celsius per century.

  • The fastest warming rate lasting 10 years or more since 1950 occurred over the 33 years from 1974 to 2006. It was equivalent to 2.0 degrees Celsius per century.

  • In 1990, the IPCC’s midrange prediction of near-term warming was equivalent to 2.8 degrees Celsius per century, higher by two-thirds than its current prediction of 1.7 degrees.

  • The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to below 1.4 degrees Celsius per century — half of what the IPCC had then predicted.

  • Though IPCC has cut its near-term warming prediction, it has not cut its high-end business-as-usual centennial warming prediction of 4.8 degrees Celsisus warming to 2100.

  • The IPCC’s predicted 4.8 degrees Celsius warming by 2100 is well over twice the greatest rate of warming lasting more than 10 years that has been measured since 1950.

  • The IPCC’s 4.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 prediction is almost four times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing warming in 1950.

  • From April 1, 2001, to July 1, 2014, the warming trend on the mean of the five global-temperature datasets is nil. No warming for 13 years, 4 months.

  • Recent extreme weather cannot be blamed on global warming because there has not been any global warming. It is as simple as that.

Dr. Roy Cordato (@RoyCordato) is Vice President for Research and Resident Scholar at the John Locke Foundation.

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