Carolina Journal Alert

Hood: McCrory underperformed in urban, suburban, and rural counties

At an analysis of the recent election during today’s Shaftesbury Society presentation, JLF Chairman John Hood cast some doubt on the notion that Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper’s lead over Pat McCrory can be explained entirely by McCrory’s poor performance in urban counties, with the governor’s support of House Bill 2 as the main reason.

Hood reviewed election results in the top-of-ticket races (president, U.S. Senate, and governor) based on voters’ home counties: urban (with a population density of 750 people or more per square mile); suburban ring (close ties to urban populations at at least 125 people per square mile); small city (including a city of 20,000 people or more); and rural (everywhere else).

Based on those designations, Cooper outpolled McCrory in urban counties (62 percent to 36 percent), but Cooper also did better than fellow Democrats Hillary Clinton and Deborah Ross in suburban-ring, smaller-city, and rural counties, too.

Here’s how Republicans fared in the different population areas:

Senate (Richard Burr)

  • Urban: 39 percent
  • Suburban ring: 61 percent
  • Smaller-city: 52 percent
  • Rural: 59 percent

President (Donald Trump)

  • Urban: 36 percent
  • Suburban ring: 61 percent
  • Smaller-city: 52 percent
  • Rural: 59 percent

Governor (Pat McCrory)

  • Urban: 36 percent
  • Suburban ring: 59 percent
  • Smaller-city: 51 percent
  • Rural: 57 percent

In other words, McCrory underperformed the top of the Republican ticket in every segment of the state. H.B. 2 probably played a role, but it wasn’t the only reason.