Recent polling from the Vandenberg Coalition shows an overall satisfaction (82%) from Trump voters with his current handling of foreign policy (51% very satisfied), with only 15% dissatisfied. Regarding China, 71% see the Asian nation as a “high” or “extremely high” threat. The finding is replicated in the “South Atlantic” region, which includes North Carolina, where 83% of Trump voters are “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with Trump’s handling of foreign policy, and 71% see China as a “extremely high threat.”
TrumP’s Foreign Policy Strategy
Many conservative foreign policy experts in Washington, DC, are also pleased with Trump’s foreign policy and his approach to China. These experts include Dr. Rebeccah Heinrichs, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and the director of the Institute’s Keystone Defense Initiative; and John Noonan, a seasoned national security expert and defense strategist, with a lengthy resume that includes serving as national security policy advisor to former presidential candidate Jeb Bush and foreign policy advisor and speechwriter to Mitt Romney in 2012.
“The purpose of American foreign policy is to increase American ability to influence global events to the benefit of the American people,” said Heinrichs, at a recent Vandenberg Coalition event.
She added that one needs to ask, “Does the person in the White House increase our ability to influence events most conducive to increasing their own sovereignty and to not be under the thumb or the coercion of other powers that are against the United States?”
And in regard to this question, Heinrichs believes that Trump is doing a better job than Biden did. Several months into the Trump administration, America’s security, freedom, and prosperity have greatly improved in terms of our ability to affect global events, said Heinrichs, so on that front she is pleased with the Trump administration’s execution of foreign policy.
Noonan also thinks Trump is successful in his approach.
“Foreign policy has always had just an element of street to it, which is the tough kid on the playground, or the bullying on the playground,” said Noonan. “We know how to stand up to bullies, we understand how to protect the weaker kids on the playground, and I think the president understands that. Everything that I saw throughout his campaign (…) was about enhancing America’s strength and negotiating position around the world, and not just our strength but our allies’ strength.”
Noonan emphasized that we are nine months into a four-year term and he would like to reserve judgment until the end of the term; however, so far, he is pleased with the president’s handling of foreign policy. He compared Trump to Reagan’s foreign policy approach, saying that while Trump isn’t looking for a fight, he will bring one if you mess around with the United States.
The China THreat
On the other hand, other experts at the event were not as please with Trump’s approach to China specifically. China experts, Dr. Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI); Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute; and Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), all agreed on the lack of a coherent strategy concerning China from the White House.
“Pressure is the policy,” said Singleton. “But pressure isn’t a strategy, and I would probably argue that slogans aren’t statecraft either. Power is the prism through which this president understands his sort of purview. It seems as though this applies to China, but I think it applies to other countries as well.”
Singleton explained the 4P framework, the drivers through which Trump views and reacts to other countries. This framework is the core through which he sees China.
- Punishment: This applies to China’s unfair trade practices, of which Trump believes the US has been taking advantage.
- Posturing: Ramping up tariffs to a high level, such as 145%, so that when he comes down to make a deal, 47% or 50% seems reasonable.
- Populism: Soybeans have been a great example of this. Trump is laser-focused on populist messaging, especially to his base. He recognizes that he can’t run again, but he sees the need to fulfill a movement.
- Personal grievance to him.
“The problem is this mix of bravado and inconsistency,” said Singleton.
Trump is praising Xi Jinping one day and punching him the next. This approach has left American allies worldwide very confused. Singleton argues that it has left Beijing emboldened. Singleton explained that Chinese interlocutors seem very confident and believe they have Trump’s number. Singleton assessed that this overconfidence could lead to miscalculation, and he thinks that is where the US might be headed.
According to Singleton, the US’s most significant threat is strategic self-sabotage. “Selling advanced semiconductors for soybeans is in my view superpower suicide,” said Singleton. “I don’t know why we would want to hand China these tools that can allow them to leapfrog us in controlling the key drivers of the 21st-century industrial revolution.”
Trade With Taiwan
Of Trump voters polled in the South Atlantic, 56% believe that the most important reason for protecting Taiwan from China’s control is that Taiwan is the leading global producer of semiconductor chips, which are used in many essential products, and the US cannot allow China to control these vital resources and technologies. This closely aligns with Trump voters nationally, with 57% of them concurring.
“Taiwan is a key trading partner for both the United States and North Carolina, particularly as the world’s leading producer of advanced semiconductor chips that power a wide range of products, from consumer electronics to vehicles and defense systems,” Joseph Harris, fiscal policy analyst for the John Locke Foundation, told the Carolina Journal. “Taiwan’s importance is reflected in our own state’s trade patterns. Year-to-date through July, Taiwan ranks as North Carolina’s 15th-largest source of imports. Strengthening our economic ties with Taiwan helps secure critical supply chains and supports North Carolina’s growing high-tech industries.”
Cooper’s assessment of Jinping is that he is not a risk-taker and is unlikely to invade Taiwan unless he is confident of its success. Cooper explained that he didn’t see how Jinping could be confident about that at this time.
