Republicans hold a supermajority in both the North Carolina House and Senate, which has enabled the legislative branch to execute measures without the Democratic governor’s approval for the past two sessions by overriding his vetoes. However, tight races could slam the door shut on Republican productivity during the 2025 long session if the party fails to win key toss-up districts in this November’s election. 

In the latest Carolina Journal poll out on Thursday, the Republican lead has all but disappeared in the generic ballot for state legislature. In August, the generic Republican advantage was 2% , but the parties now stand tied at 46%. In the poll, results from urban voters and independents have seen net shifts towards a generic Democrat since August at 24% and 11% respectively.

While the Senate remains in a safer position to maintain a supermajority, the House is holding on by a thread. The House picked up a supermajority months into the 2023 long session after Rep. Tricia Cothham, R-Meck, switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party, a massive shake-up within the General Assembly. 

Cotham, who represents District 105, won as a Democrat, but her seat in southern Mecklenburg County is a “wildcard,” according to Andy Jackson, Director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity. While the district leans Republican, the area has been trending more liberal, and Democrats are making a concerted effort to unseat someone they see as a traitor.

“The path for Republican supermajorities is a little easier this year compared to 2022 but is by no means assured,” Jackson said. “Republicans can retain their supermajority in the Senate if they win at least two of five toss-up districts.”

As displayed in the Civitas Partisan Index, key Senate races include suburban districts around Raleigh, particularly Districts 11, 13, and 18, and toss-up District 42 outside Charlotte. 

During the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans won two Democratic-leaning Senate seats and seven Democratic-leaning House seats. They also won every toss-up seat in both chambers, which enabled them to gain their supermajority. After the 2022 election, Republicans controlled the Senate 30-20 and the House 71-49, with Cothham giving House Republicans the 72 seats needed for a three-fifths supermajority as required in the state Constitution.

“With 2024 being an election year, neither side should have a significant turnout advantage. That will make it more difficult for either party to win in close districts that lean toward the other party,” Jackson added. “In the House, Republicans have to defend several incumbents in Democratic-leaning seats, such as the 24th and 25th districts in Wilson and Nash counties.”

The mapping tool is a baseline measure of districts following redistricting and does not account for factors such as candidate quality or incumbency.

“If Democrats can break at least one of the Republican supermajorities, we can expect less productivity from Raleigh. That is what we saw at times during the Cooper administration.”