Southeastern North Carolina is one of the fastest growing regions in the state, and with that comes changes in the political landscape.
New Hanover County, which is home to the city of Wilmington, has gained national attention as a political bellwether. The county voted for Republican presidents for 44 years. In 2016, it supported Trump by a four-point margin, reflecting the state’s overall result. However, in 2020, the county flipped, with Joe Biden winning by two points, in contrast to Trump’s 1.4% victory statewide.
This shift reflects broader national trends, where urban and suburban areas moved toward the Democrats, while rural regions remained firmly Republican. As a result, New Hanover County’s electoral outcomes may continue to shift. Data from the US Census Bureau shows a population increase of over 31,000 between 2010-2022. In particular, Wilmington has seen an influx of younger, more progressive voters, while the surrounding areas remain more conservative. This blend of political views means that winning New Hanover can be a key indicator of a candidate’s success in North Carolina as a whole.
In the 2024 election cycle, candidates are aware of the importance, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have visited the county this election cycle along with many statewide candidates.
Similar to the state as a whole, New Hanover County’s largest voting block is Unaffiliated (42%), followed by Republicans (29%), and Democrats (27%). According to CarolinaElections.com early voting totals in New Hanover County show Unaffiliated voters casting the most ballots thus far (35.4%), Republicans (34.0%), and Democrats (29.9%). New Hanover County is the only county where the margin of early votes between Republicans and Democrats has shifted in favor of Democrats compared to 2020, and also the only county where the total number of early votes cast has decreased.
Political strategist Jonathan Bridges says the unique landscape of the county makes targeting unaffiliated voters very important.
“The way New Hanover votes is usually an indicator of how the state as well as other areas in the country will vote. It’s why you see Trump and Harris spending time in New Hanover,” said Bridges. “That’s why Republicans have to work to turn out the base in the primary and need to shift center right in the general. For a candidate to win in New Hanover, they have to get votes from both sides. While the base hates to hear this, we have too many swing and moderate voters for the middle to be ignored during an election.”
That voter makeup could be critically important for Republicans that are attempting to retain a supermajority in the General Assembly. Senate District 7 which is currently held by Republican Michael Lee is rated “Lean Republican” in the 2024 Civitas Partisan Index (CPI). Lee’s last two races have been decided by less than 1800 votes each.
In House District 20 incumbent Republican Ted Davis’s seat also “Leans Republican” according to the CPI, he won his race in 2022 by 847 votes.