Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper holds an early lead over Republican challenger Michael Whatley in the first poll of likely North Carolina voters since both candidates secured their party nominations for the state’s open United States Senate seat.
According to the new Carolina Journal poll, Cooper leads Whatley 49% to 41% — an 8-point margin. Four percent of voters said they would choose a different candidate, while 6% remain undecided. Whatley has the support of 86% of voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024, while Cooper has the support of 94% of Kamala Harris 2024 voters.
Another recent poll from the Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling put the race at a dead heat — with Cooper up over Whatley 47% to 44%, within the poll’s margin of error.
The new CJ poll also queried voter attitudes on another major statewide ballot race this year — for a seat on the state Supreme Court. In that race, 41% of voters picked incumbent Democrat Anita Earls, 38% picked Republican Sarah Stevens, and 21% picked someone else or were unsure.
On a generic ballot for state legislative and congressional offices, Democrats hold a modest edge, though the differences fall within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
For state legislative seats, 45% of voters said they would choose a Democrat, compared to 43% for a Republican, with 12% undecided. The results were similar for congressional races: 48% would choose a Democrat, 44% a Republican, and 8% were unsure.
The gap widens among independent voters. Forty-four percent of independents said they would back a Democrat for state legislative office, versus 34% for a Republican. That divide grows even larger for congressional races, where 51% of independents preferred a Democrat and just 35% a Republican.
“Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the party in the White House, and this poll shows that dynamic is alive and well in North Carolina,” said Donald Bryson, John Locke Foundation CEO and Carolina Journal publisher. “With more voters saying the country is on the wrong track and the president underwater, the environment is naturally tilting toward the out-party.”
Voter pessimism about the direction of the country runs high. Fifty-six percent of likely voters said the United States is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 39% who said it is on the right track. Views on North Carolina itself are more balanced but still net-negative: 46% said the state is on the wrong track, while 33% said right track.
President Trump’s approval rating among likely North Carolina voters stands at 45% approve and 54% disapprove.
By contrast, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein draws majority approval — 51% approve of his job performance, compared to 33% who disapprove and 17% who remain unsure. Twenty-six percent of Republicans said they approve of how Stein is handling the governorship.
Nearly three-quarters of voters said they would support a state constitutional amendment limiting how much local governments can raise property taxes. Only 12% oppose such a measure, with 15% unsure.
“In a year when property taxes are front and center across the country, North Carolina voters are sending a clear message: rising property taxes are a burden, and they want limits,” said Bryson. “That’s a powerful signal for policymakers heading into the legislative session.”
Beyond candidate preferences and property taxes, the survey captured voter sentiment on several other key policy issues:
- Carbon neutrality mandate: Voters are split on the state’s legal mandate for carbon neutrality by 2050, particularly if meeting that goal would raise energy bills. Most lean toward keeping it as an aspirational target rather than a binding legal requirement — 25% want it to remain law, 33% want it to remain a goal but not a legal requirement, and 26% want it eliminated entirely, with 16% unsure. Notably, only 39% of Democrats favor keeping it as a legal requirement.
- Coal plant replacements: A majority of voters, 52%, support requiring utility companies to replace coal plants with energy sources that provide reliable power without backup generation. Twenty-eight percent oppose the idea, and 21% are unsure.
- Property taxes: Voters broadly view property taxes as a financial burden. Thirty-eight percent call them a major burden, 39% a minor burden, and 17% say they are not a burden at all.
- Regulatory sandbox for innovation: A slim majority of voters support creating a regulatory sandbox to encourage business innovation — 51% in favor, 22% opposed, and 27% unsure.
- Housing supply and affordability: Most North Carolina voters don’t believe that adding more housing supply would lower home prices in the state. Fifty-six percent said they do not believe increased supply would reduce costs, while 34% said it would and 11% were unsure. There is a generational divide: voters aged 18 to 34 are more likely to believe increased supply helps, while voters 65 and older are the least convinced.
- Franchise tax elimination: Eliminating North Carolina’s franchise tax — a levy charged on businesses based on their net worth or capital, regardless of whether they turn a profit — does not appear to be a galvanizing issue for most voters. Forty-seven percent support repeal, 37% oppose it, and 16% are unsure.
- Legislative term limits: Voters strongly favor limits on how long elected officials can serve. Seventy-five percent support term limits for legislators and 69% support limits on legislative leadership. By comparison, just 28% support placing limits on the length of legislative sessions, 6% support increasing legislative salaries, and 6% want none of those changes.
- No-budget, no-pay: An overwhelming 84% of voters support a rule that would require state lawmakers to give up their salaries if the legislature fails to pass a new state budget on time. Only 8% oppose the idea.
- Certificate of need laws: Voters are divided on whether the state legislature should repeal the state’s certificate of need law, which requires health care providers to obtain government approval before expanding services. Forty-two percent support repeal, 38% oppose it, and 20% are unsure.
- Occupational licensing: Roughly half of voters oppose reducing licensing requirements to make it easier for people to enter certain professions — 47% oppose such reforms, 39% support them, and 14% are unsure.
- AI energy requirements: An overwhelming 78% of voters want artificial intelligence companies to generate their own energy rather than rely on the existing power grid. Ten percent oppose the idea, and 12% are unsure.
- Involuntary commitment: Seventy percent of likely voters support increasing the use of involuntary commitments for individuals with severe mental illness. Sixteen percent oppose the policy, and 14% are unsure.
The CJ poll surveyed 600 likely voters and was conducted March 22-23 by Harper Polling.