Former North Carolina GOP chair Michael Whatley holds a significant lead in the Republican primary for the state’s open United States Senate seat, though a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, according to the latest Carolina Journal Poll of likely Republican primary voters.
Whatley garnered 38% support, with his strongest backing coming from very conservative voters at 47%, Trump Republicans with 53%, and voters aged 65 and older at 52%. Trailing him are Don Brown with 8% support, Michele Morrow at 2%, and Thomas Johnson with 1%. Fifty percent have yet to commit to a candidate.
“Michael Whatley has a clear advantage and is above the level you’d normally want to see to secure a nomination. But when half the electorate remains undecided this late in the game, that’s a flashing yellow light, not a victory lap,” said Donald Bryson, John Locke Foundation CEO and Carolina Journal publisher. “Late-deciding voters will determine whether this becomes a consolidation story or a surprise.”
The poll also showed that President Donald Trump remains popular among likely GOP voters — with an 81% approval rating, against 17% disapproval. Support for Trump was near universal among self-identified Trump Republicans at 98% and Christian conservatives at 92%, while traditional Republicans showed a 63% approval rate. Trump’s highest approval, at 91%, was among those earning between $40,000 and $69,999 annually.
Over three-quarters of Republican primary voters in the state identify with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. A majority of voters — 63% — believe there is a discernible difference between a MAGA Republican and a traditional Republican, with 25% disagreeing and 12% unsure.
“The poll reminds us that Donald Trump clearly has reshaped the Republican Party,” Bryson said. “The president’s influence will play out in North Carolina’s election this year and is likely to impact Republicans — and Democrats — looking ahead to 2028 and beyond.”
Overall, the Republican Party enjoys high marks among these voters, with 74% expressing a favorable view and 23% unfavorable.
The “Make America Healthy Again Movement,” spearheaded by secretary of health Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and focused on dietary standards and agriculture, also garnered strong support, with 81% in favor and 12% opposed.
Mixed view on state, national leaders
Likely Republican primary voters hold mixed opinions on current North Carolina GOP representatives at both state and federal levels.
Outgoing US Sen. Thom Tillis has a favorability rating of 33% compared to 51% unfavorable. But Tillis maintains a net-positive image among traditional Republicans — at 49% favorable and 39% unfavorable. US Sen. Ted Budd fared better, with a 50% favorable rating against 18% unfavorable.
Further down the ballot, there is lower name recognition and favorability for four tested statewide Republican officials:
- State Supreme Court Chief Justice Paul Newby: 19% favorable, 6% unfavorable, 29% no opinion, and 47% never heard of him.
- State Auditor Dave Boliek: 18% favorable, 4% unfavorable, 32% no opinion, and 46% never heard of.
- State Treasurer Brad Briner: 16% favorable, 4% unfavorable, 34% no opinion, and 47% never heard of.
- Labor Commissioner Luke Farley: 19% favorable, 3% unfavorable, 33% no opinion, and 45% never heard of.
Views on current events
Asked about the state legislature’s handling of recent budget negotiations, 23% of Republican primary voters approved, 36% disapproved, and 40% were unsure. A strong majority — 74% — believe the state’s tax burden is too high, with 18% considering it about right and only 2% deeming it too low.
Support for tariffs on imported goods is high, with 79% approving, 17% disapproving, and 4% unsure. Regarding who pays for these tariffs, 46% believe the US consumer bears the cost, while 37% point to foreign countries or businesses, 6% to US businesses, and 11% are unsure.
“What’s striking is that a majority of Republican primary voters believe American consumers or businesses ultimately bear the cost of tariffs, yet nearly four out of five still support them,” Bryson said. “With President Trump’s approval above 80% among these voters, that tells us this is less about textbook economics and more about giving the president’s kite more string.”
Republican primary voters in the state also hold a strong, favorable view of recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) efforts in the US, with 79% expressing a favorable opinion, 19% unfavorable, and 2% unsure.
Where GOP voters get their news
The most influential news source for these Republican primary voters is Fox News at 50%, followed by Newsmax at 27%. Both The Joe Rogan Experience and the Tucker Carlson Show came in at 13% each.
In terms of news consumption platforms, 44% primarily get their news from cable news, 39% from social media, and 30% from local broadcast TV news.
The CJ poll surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters and was conducted Feb. 22-23 by Harper Polling.