U.S. Representative Don Davis, D-NC-01, has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in her bid for the presidency in 2024. He throws his support behind Harris just days after he voted to condemn Harris’ job performance as border czar for the Biden Administration.
The seeming contradiction comes as Davis navigates a challenging re-election campaign in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District. Davis faces Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout in November.
NEW: Congressman Don Davis Endorses Vice President Kamala Harris for President pic.twitter.com/QpUNP9a2jZ
— Don Davis (@DonDavisNC) July 26, 2024
Davis was among the six Democrats who earlier this week broke with their party and voted for House Resolution 1371 “strongly condemning the Biden Administration and its Border Czar, Kamala Harris’s, failure to secure the United States border.”
The resolution and endorsement highlight a tightrope that Davis and other frontline Democrats will walk in close re-election contests. As Democrats try appease voters frustrated with the now-void primary process, they hope Davis’ backing could appeal to moderate Democrat voters in North Carolina.
However, with Harris’ far-left record, the support could hurt Davis more than help the vice president.
Harris has been outspoken on policy in favor of the Green New Deal, bans on fracking and off-shore drilling, decriminalizing border crossings, and eliminating private health insurance. Harris’ record is a point of contention at the moment, though, as groups like GovTrack scrub their site of rankings that show her ideologically far left.
A new ad out this week goes straight after Harris’ progressive policy past.
Bob Casey just endorsed the most liberal nominee in U.S. history. pic.twitter.com/J0V6W7CUlh
— Dave McCormick (@DaveMcCormickPA) July 23, 2024
“Davis’ decision to back Harris just after voting for a resolution condemning her work on the southern border is likely to maintain support with the Democratic base,” said research fellow Jim Stirling of the John Locke Foundation. “With the counties that make up the district trending more in favor of Republicans year by year, an endorsement of Harris will likely be a detriment to Davis in November. While Harris is seeing a higher favorability than Biden did post-debate, Harris’ record as the most liberal member of the Senate in 2019 will not help with moderate voters in the district.”
NC-1 in a toss-up
Davis won CD-01 in 2022 by 52% to 47% over Republican Sandy Smith. The Civitas Partisan Index labels the current 1st Congressional District as the only toss-up in the state with a D+0, meaning Democrats have a baseline advantage of less than half a percentage point, based on data from the 2020 and 2022 elections.
Since July 2022, Davis’ edge in registered Democrats has shifted. Registered Democrats in CD-01 have dropped 3.07% in the last two years, the same number by which the number of unaffiliated voters has grown. The number of Republicans has also grown by 1.5% since July 2022.
“The Democratic registration advantage shows that there are still registered Democrats who regularly vote Republican in the area,” said Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation.
The toss-up rating makes North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District a key battleground, after more than a century as a safe Democrat area. Both parties at the state and national level are keeping a close eye on the contest as part of their efforts to control the US House in 2025. Republicans have Army combat veteran Buckhout challenging Davis with a campaign based on securing the border, protecting the Second Amendment, improving the economy, and reducing inflation and the cost of living.
Davis lists equity and justice, women’s healthcare rights, and rural economy and infrastructure among his campaign priorities.
Fundraising Advantage
Davis’ endorsement could help keep the spigot on as Democrats work to fill Davis’ campaign coffers. Data from the Federal Elections Commission shows him outpacing his Republican challenger in campaign contributions, 85% of which comes from PACs or large individual donors. As of the last submissions to the Federal Elections Commission, Davis has just over $2.6 million in his campaign account for the home stretch to November. Buckhout has about $600,000.
Overall, Davis has raised $3.1 million to Buckhout’s $2.6 million, which includes $1 million of her own money. The difference in cash on hand at this point in the race shows the impact of a competitive primary. Buckhout spent to defeat Republican primary opponent Smith, 53% to 47%, while Davis did not have a primary opponent.
As the 2024 election approaches, the dynamics in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District will be closely monitored. The interaction of endorsements, fundraising efforts, and voter sentiment will play a critical role in determining outcomes for both the district and the national political landscape.