- “While Mecklenburg-specific demographics are not yet available, nationally, 54% of Latino men voted Republican—marking a 15% increase since 2020," said Jeffrey Baldwin of Libre Institute. "In Mecklenburg, the number of registered Latino voters is growing at an average rate of 40% every four years. If current voting and registration trends continue, the Latino vote could position Republicans to dominate the state.”
In what many expected to be a solid election day for Charlotte Republicans, the GOP came up short in the heavily-Democratic County of Mecklenburg, where Democrats captured the majority of the races.
Democratic gubernatorial candidates for governor and Attorney General Josh Stein, along with Jeff Jackson, emerged victorious in the Mecklenburg County vote over their Republican opponents Lt. Governor Mark Robinson and Congressman Dan Bishop.
Republicans did perform well in some areas. Hotly contested races in various NC House and Senate races came down the wire. The NC Senate District 42 race between Republican Stacie McGinn and Democrat Woodson Bradley is razor thin and still undetermined. The two candidates are separated by 101 votes, as of Friday afternoon. Absentee and provisional ballots are still being counted.
In NC Senate District 37, Republican State Sen. Vickie Sawyer held off a challenge from Democrat Kate Compton Barr. Sawyer won by only 82 votes in the county (though a much wider margin elsewhere).
Over in House District 105, Republican Tricia Cotham earned a narrow victory over Democrat Nicole Sidman. Cotham declared victory on Wednesday, when all county precincts had been reported. Sidman then requested a recount of the vote totals.
Elsewhere in the county, Republican candidates also lost races in House Districts 103 and 104.
In the races for County Commissioner, GOP candidates lost narrow races Commission Districts 5 and 6, where Democrats Laura Meier and Susan Rodriguez-McDowell were victorious over Republicans Dr. Art McCulloch and Jim Marascio.
Reasons for Optimism
In a statement to Carolina Journal, Mecklenburg County Republican Party Vice-Chair David Merrill said he is proud of the effort put forth by all the Republican candidates in spite of the almost insurmountable opposition.
“Despite these setbacks, we are incredibly proud of our local wins, especially in the face of the Democrat political machine,” said Merrill. “Tricia Cotham, whom the Democratic Party had marked as their top target, was successfully re-elected by her constituents. We’re also thrilled by Luke Farley’s victory over Braxton Winston for NC Labor Commissioner, where he even surpassed Trump’s vote count in North Carolina—a remarkable achievement.”
Merrill added that he sees opportunities for Republicans to lead on the national level and in other offices throughout NC.
“As we move forward with a Republican president, a Republican-majority Senate and House, a conservative Supreme Court, and Republican leadership in the NC Senate, House, and Supreme Court, we have an unprecedented opportunity,” he said. “Now is the time to demonstrate to the Democratic Party and to all Americans what we stand for: patriotic, commonsense policies that protect freedom, secure our borders, ensure election integrity, and expand opportunities for all Americans. We are not who the Democratic Party says we are, and over the next four years and beyond, we are going to prove that to America and the world.”
Many activists were encouraged by the number of voters showing up during the early voting period and on election day. Local Republican activist and business owner Kyle Kirby told CJ that he was impressed by the turnout of early voters in the county,
“I was impressed by the turnout in early voting,” Kirby said. “I believe it sends a clear message for change. In precinct 233, where I worked on Election Day, 3/4th of the voters voted early. So while the day of the election was not the lines I had anticipated, turnout nonetheless was well over what was expected. It seemed numbers of people were turning out to vote for Donald Trump, and I found enthusiasm for Kamala Harris seemed forced.”
Examining the data
Sarah Reidy-Jones, who serves as senior consultant at Longleaf Pine Consulting, LLC, told CJ in a statement that from a data perspective, the voter turnout was promising, and she applauded the effort by Republican Addul Ali in his race against incumbent Democrat Congresswoman Alma Adams in Congressional District 12, which is based entirely within Mecklenburg County.
“Looking locally, Trump received 5,000 more votes and 1% more in 2024 than 2020 (32.5% vs. 31.6%) in Mecklenburg,” Reidy-Jones said. “Turnout was promising considering Republican voter registration has fallen to 19% in Mecklenburg County. Trump’s total vote in Mecklenburg was still 14,000 short of the overall goal by the RNC, despite efforts. The 12th congressional district is bluer than prior to redistricting and that showed in election night data with Addul Ali only receiving 26% of the vote, compared to nearly 32% from Tyler Lee. As a black Republican, Ali mounted a strong grassroots effort in neighborhoods the Party typically wouldn’t enter, but it ultimately didn’t move the needle. Statewide or federal candidates fell within a 30-35% range in Mecklenburg, which is consistent with past presidential year numbers. Overall, the GOP will need to continue to triage north Mecklenburg and its shifting from red to blue. The constitutional amendment (stating only a citizen of the United States who is 18 years of age and otherwise possessing the qualifications for voting shall be entitled to vote at any election in NC) received over 70% of the vote, which shows that voters aren’t totally immune to value-based persuasion, the question remains on how the Republican Party can continue to make inroads on their messaging. It will be interesting to see if Trump can parlay these upcoming 4 years into influencing local voters over the next 4 years.”
In a statement to CJ, Jeffrey Baldwin, a resident of Charlotte who serves as director of the Libre Institute, noted the shift in voting among the Latino residents in the county.
“A significant shift occurred with a majority of Latino men voting Republican for the first time,” said Baldwin. “While Mecklenburg-specific demographics are not yet available, nationally, 54% of Latino men voted Republican—marking a 15% increase since 2020. In Mecklenburg, the number of registered Latino voters is growing at an average rate of 40% every four years. If current voting and registration trends continue, the Latino vote could position Republicans to dominate the state.”