- Duke Energy increases reliance on nuclear energy, natural gas, and coal in its latest two-year Carolinas Resource Plan.
- The utility projects that electricity demands will grow eight times faster in the next 15 years than demand grew in the previous 15 years.
- Duke estimates a 2.1% average annual increase in customers' bills, "significantly less" than the impact of a plan state regulators approved in 2023.
Duke Energy relies more heavily on nuclear power, natural gas, and coal in its latest two-year long-range energy modernization plan, filed Wednesday with the North Carolina Utilities Commission. The plan holds the line on solar power commitments but calls for no use of wind power.
Duke’s new 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan projects average 2.1% annual increases in customers’ bills, “lower than the rate of inflation and significantly less than projected costs for the previously approved plan,” according to a news release.
State regulators must approve Duke’s plan before the utility can proceed. Hearings will be scheduled in 2026.
“The plan reflects rising electricity demand across the Carolinas at an unprecedented pace,” Duke reported. “Across the Carolinas, customer energy needs over the next 15 years are expected to grow at eight times the growth rate of the prior 15 years. To put this in perspective, that growth alone is more than double the energy use forecasted when the 2023 Carolinas Resource Plan was initially filed.”
The updated plan “adapts to significant policy changes at state and federal levels,” according to the release. Both North Carolina and South Carolina have approved recent legislation emphasizing reliability. Meanwhile, changes at the federal level “support advanced nuclear and battery storage and provide flexibility for existing coal and new natural gas generation,” Duke reported.
Changes from the 2023 plan include adding light-water nuclear reactor (LLWR) technology for evaluation, along with small modular reactors. Duke is “targeting potential 2037 in-service” for SMR generation at Belews Creek in North Carolina or LLWR generation in Cherokee County, SC.
Duke would add two natural gas combustion turbines beyond 2023 projections. The utility would target 4,000 megawatts of solar power by 2034, “maintaining the 2025 procurement target to maximize customer benefits of the remaining federal energy credits for solar.”
The plan targets “potential two- to four-year extensions” of coal units with “dual-fuel capability,” Duke reports. “Maintaining an orderly exit from coal as approved by state regulators, while extending the operational life of these fuel-flexible assets for a short time, will help meet load growth,” according to the news release.
The new plan targets 5,600 MW of battery storage by 2034. That represents an increase of 2,900 MW from the old plan’s projection through 2031.
Wind power is labeled “not an economically viable resource for customers through 2040,” according to the updated plan. Duke will reassess wind in its next plan update in two years.
The updated plan calls for “limited near-term development” of a second power block of pumped storage hydroelectricity. The target date to have that additional generation is bumped back from 2034 to 2040 “to reduce grid upgrade costs and accelerate in-service dates for crucial near-term projects.”
“We’ve also made further progress in maximizing the value of existing resources, making them more efficient and able to deliver more electricity to meet near-term growth needs while minimizing costs to customers,” said Kendal Bowman, Duke Energy’s North Carolina president.
Duke’s new filing shows the impact of Senate Bill 266, the Power Bill Reduction Act, according to Jon Sanders, director of the Center for Food, Power, and Life at the John Locke Foundation. Lawmakers approved SB 266 in July over Gov. Josh Stein’s veto.
The measure eliminated a state goal of 70% carbon dioxide emissions reductions by 2030.
“We demonstrated in our ‘Power Plays‘ report that the Carbon Plan’s interim goal of 70% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation by 2030 was having an outsized effect on resource planning, depressing natural gas and nuclear resources and greatly favoring solar and wind resources,” Sanders said.
The Utilities Commission’s Public Staff estimated that removing the 2030 goal would save electricity ratepayers $13 billion.
“SB 266’s repeal of the interim goal has resulted in planning for more natural gas and nuclear resources as well as retaining some coal resources longer. All of these things are important for maintaining reliable power,” Sanders said.
“Prior to SB 266, North Carolinians were facing a perfect storm of electricity cost and reliability issues. Not only were coal resources being retired quicker while the baseload-capable resources of natural gas and nuclear were being downplayed in modeling because of the interim goal, but also the impact of power-hungry data centers was starting to be realized,” he added. “Electricity consumers were looking at a massive shift to overbuilding costly and unreliable solar and wind resources during this increase in demand.”
Sanders noted the plan’s increased emphasis on nuclear power. “Zero-emissions nuclear power has proven to be the most reliable generation resource in Duke’s arsenal, maintaining power without fluctuation during the recent heat wave and the 2022 Christmas Eve blackout,” he said.
Duke “still anticipates a very large buildout of solar resources and battery arrays, justified in part on taking advantage of federal tax credits before they expire,” Sanders added.
“Though the resource in Duke’s filing with the greatest increase in capacity is still an intermittent resource incapable of handling baseload needs, the greater increases in baseload-capable and dispatchable resources relative to the previous plan should better position Duke for keeping the power flowing in North Carolina,” he said.
