Two seasoned political experts who have worked on presidential campaigns — one as George W. Bush’s chief of staff — spoke at Duke University recently, sharing their insights on the upcoming federal election races and the notable increase in early voter turnout this year.
In their predictions for which party might gain control of the House and Senate, David Axelrod and Karl Rove agreed that the House is likely to go to the Democrats, while the Senate may favor the Republicans. However, both agreed that the presidential race is still too close to call.
Axelrod, a former chief strategist and senior adviser to President Barack Obama and founding director of the University of Chicago’s non-partisan Institute of Politics, along with Karl Rove, who served as a senior adviser and later deputy chief of staff for President George W. Bush, spoke at Duke’s Program in American Grand Strategy.
Both experts said the strong early voter turnout was surprisingly close in comparison to four years ago. Axelrod pointed out that more Republicans are voting by mail or in advance this year.
“President Trump, former President Trump, has spent a lot of time telling people that mail-in voting was not legitimate,” Axelrod explained, “but his campaign has been working hard to get people to do it. And so, you see more Republicans participating in early voting, both in person and by mail. That’s going to change the dynamics a little bit.”
“David is right. There’s a big wave of early votes,” said Rove, pointing out that although Republican participation in early voting is up, Democrats still lead in the number of mail-in ballot requests and returns. Rove referenced NBC News, which tracks voter turnout by party affiliation, showing Democrats ahead in both requests and returns.
The conversation shifted to Biden’s decision not to run and Kamala Harris’s reduced campaign timeline compared to Trump’s. Axelrod emphasized that presidential candidates usually have at least a year to introduce themselves to voters, but Harris has had less time. He noted that, as vice president, she hadn’t campaigned in a primary.
“You can say, well, she was vice president. Yes, but vice presidents are really meant to be seen and not heard from, so people really didn’t know her,” Axelrod said. “It’s kind of astonishing how much progress she’s made in terms of her public profile in 90 days.”
They also discussed the single debate between Trump and Harris.
“The reason why the Trump campaign didn’t want another debate is because she showed in that forum that she had a certain command.” Axelrod said.
Axelrod said Trump responded defensively whenever Harris challenged him, especially on issues like rally crowd sizes.
“Each time he was attacked on his campaign, he fell for it every time,” Axelrod said. “She was Pavlov, and he was the dog.”
The two encouraged young voters to get more involved. Axelrod beleives that young people are growing more hopeful rather than cynical.
“They’re skeptical, but they’re not cynical,” he said, “and they understand that there are tools available to make the world a better place and communities stronger. We have to encourage that.” Reflecting on his work with students at Arizona State, Axelrod added, “We want them to be hopeful, not cynical.”