Recent reports suggest that North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is being considered as a potential vice-presidential candidate to run alongside current Vice President Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket in 2024.

If Harris secures the presidential nomination and selects Cooper as her running mate, what impact could that decision have on down-ballot races in North Carolina?

Current President Joe Biden made history on Sunday by announcing he wouldn’t seek the Democratic nomination for president. Instead, he endorsed Harris as his successor.

While Harris’ nomination isn’t a given, many Democrats are rallying behind the former US Senator. The choice of a southern governor like Cooper, who is perceived as a moderate, could help turn swing states such as North Carolina and Georgia blue. This strategy might counterbalance potential losses in rust belt states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which cost Democrats the 2016 election.

“The presence of Cooper on the Democratic ticket could put North Carolina into play for the Democrats,” said Dr. David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh. “Political science research states that the presence of a vice presidential candidate adds about three percentage points to the party of the candidate in his or her home state. So, if North Carolina is as close as it was in 2020, then Cooper’s presence could be decisive.”

Dr. Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College in Salisbury, believes the key variable is how these decisions affect the Democratic base in North Carolina and the small group of persuadable voters in the middle.

“For right now, I think NC was likely a Republican state pre-Biden departure, and it’s now probably a ‘lean’ GOP,” Bitzer said.

The impact of Cooper’s name on the presidential ticket on down-ballot races in North Carolina remains uncertain. Aside from the presidential race, significant contests include the gubernatorial race between Republican Mark Robinson and Democrat Josh Stein, as well as Council of State races for positions like attorney general and lieutenant governor. The only competitive congressional race is in the 1st Congressional District.

“Research does not show that the effect of the presidential races translates precisely to other races,” McLennan noted. “There are too many other factors, such as candidate quality, that affect those races.”

“North Carolina’s electorate has become extremely calcified, or rigid, much like the national electorate,” Bitzer said. “Movements of one, two, or even three percentage points can have significant consequences, and that will be the case here in North Carolina down the ballot.”

Another potential factor that could energize Democratic voters in North Carolina is race. Kamala Harris is half Jamaican and half Indian. With the black population in North Carolina around 21% in 2024, black voters are crucial to Democratic politics in the state. In the 2020 election, about 92% of black voters supported Joe Biden.

“Given that Joe Biden’s approval among Black voters had diminished since 2020—falling into the mid or low-60 percent range—it is reasonable to expect that Harris might help improve turnout among this key voting group,” said McLennan.

“Black women are the core constituency of the Democratic base, and so turnout is critical for them,” said Bitzer. But he also pointed to the 2022 midterms when Cheri Beasley, a black woman, was atop the Democratic ticket for the open U.S. Senate seat, yet the turnout rate for black voters was below the state average.

“A black woman at the top of the ticket doesn’t necessarily generate the mobilization effect on its own,” he said.