Republican congressional nominee Laurie Buckhout has been fined and suspended from prediction market Kalshi after trading contracts tied to her own candidacy, according to a disciplinary notice made public Monday.
According to the notice, Buckhout purchased less than $1,000 worth of contracts related to her candidacy. Kalshi determined that, as a candidate, Buckhout qualified as a direct decision-maker with influence over the outcome and therefore was prohibited from trading under the exchange’s rules.
Buckhout acknowledged the mistake in a statement to Carolina Journal and said she moved quickly to resolve the issue.
“I bet on myself. Literally,” Buckhout said. “It was a dumb mistake, and as soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right. Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived.”
Kalshi imposed a $2,589.96 financial penalty and suspended Buckhout from direct or indirect access to the exchange for three years.
Kalshi’s Compliance Department also said Buckhout cooperated with its inquiry into the trading activity and agreed to resolve the matter by accepting the department’s conclusions, paying the financial penalty, and accepting the three-year restriction from trading on the exchange.
Kalshi Rule 5.17(z) prohibits someone from trading when that person has “any influence, directly or indirectly” over the outcome of the underlying event, regardless of the importance of that influence. In the case of a political candidate, the candidate’s ability to influence whether he or she ultimately wins or loses is itself enough to trigger the prohibition.
The disciplinary action comes as Buckhout is running in one of North Carolina’s most closely watched congressional races. She is challenging Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis in a rematch of their 2024 contest, which Davis won 49.5% to 47.8%, a margin of just over 6,000 votes.
State lawmakers redrew the district again last year, making it more favorable to Republicans ahead of the 2026 election. The John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Center for Public Integrity rates the newly redrawn 1st District R+5, a shift from D+1 under the previous map.
Buckhout is not the first political candidate disciplined by Kalshi for trading on a race in which the candidate was directly involved.
Earlier this year, the exchange suspended three candidates for five years after determining they had traded on their own elections. The penalties included a $539.85 fine for Minnesota congressional candidate Matt Klein, a $784.20 fine for Texas congressional candidate Ezekiel Enriquez, and a $6,229.30 penalty against Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran. Kalshi said all three violated the same rule barring people with influence over an event from trading contracts tied to its outcome.
The Buckhout action comes after Carolina Journal examined the growing reach of prediction markets in North Carolina elections and the challenges that can arise when people with direct knowledge of — or influence over — an outcome are able to participate in markets surrounding it.
Jacki McGavick, a spokesperson for Kalshi, told Carolina Journal that the company uses political data to identify candidates, campaign staff, election officials, and others who could have conflicts with individual markets and monitors trading activity for unusual patterns.
“We ingest data from political sources to flag and prevent people affiliated with campaigns and elections from trading on related markets,” McGavick told Carolina Journal. “That system isn’t perfect and doesn’t always capture everyone, but anyone who trades on inside information or in violation of these rules would be potentially subject to punishment.”
McGavick added that confirmed violations can result in disgorgement of profits, financial penalties, multi-year suspensions, or permanent bans, and that such violations are reported to federal regulators.
The issue has taken on additional significance in North Carolina after lawmakers established a state tax framework for prediction markets in this year’s budget.
Beginning Jan. 1, 2027, prediction-market operators will pay a 6% state tax on net trading-fee revenue attributable to North Carolina. The law also recognizes prediction markets registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as lawful in the state without imposing an additional state licensing or registration requirement.
Trading has continued on the general-election contest between Buckhout and Davis. As of Monday, Kalshi’s NC-1 general-election market had generated $74,393 in trading volume, with Davis given a 61% chance of winning and Buckhout at 41%.
