NC among 7 swing states under microscope on Election Day

Vote Here Sign Up Close Source: Jacob Emmons, Carolina Journal

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  • With absentee voting, nearly 4.5 million voters have already cast a ballot in North Carolina, representing approximately 57% of the 7.8 million registered voters in the state.

It’s here. After months of campaigning, billions of dollars spent, and incessant political ads, voting is underway on Election Day 2024.

For voters in North Carolina, and six other critical battleground states, the opening of the general election polls represents a final crescendo capping off months of being observed under a microscope by talking heads, politicos, and Joe Blows. Being marked a swing state in 2024 means a full inundation of ads and top-of-the-ticket visits nearly every time one turns around.

North Carolina is joined on the short list of must-watch states by Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All told, the battlegrounds represent 93 Electoral College votes; the Tar Heel State holds 16 of them.

During the course of the evening, as results filter in, national correspondents will consider and talk about counties and precincts which are overly familiar to locals, but which rarely, if ever, shower in the national spotlight of undecided battlegrounds on election night. In North Carolina, exit polls and trends in counties like New Hanover, Nash, Johnston and Union will be minutely examined by analysts, data geeks, and media contributors who were complete strangers to these places just a few months ago.

Thanks to the advent of early voting more than 20 years ago, there’s already plenty of data to consider while waiting on Election Day results to roll in.

nc early voting

While we don’t know the ultimate result of the early vote in North Carolina, yet, we can glean plenty about who was voting and where. That information, while limited, can help direct speculation about final results in one direction or another, and 2024 is no exception.

According to the NC State Board of Elections, in-person early voting set a record for turn out here, with more than 4.2 million North Carolinians cast their ballots during the period. The previous record was 3.6 million in 2020.

With absentee voting, nearly 4.5 million voters have already cast a ballot in North Carolina, representing approximately 57% of the 7.8 million registered voters in the state.

The early voting turnout has been encouraging for North Carolina Republicans, who typically head into Election Day at a statistically significant disadvantage. Notably, while unaffiliated registrants were the largest group of early voters, Republicans outvoted Democrats in the state for the first time.

Over the course of the roughly 2.5 week early voting period, presidential candidates, running mates, and surrogates treated North Carolina like a second-home, holding dozens of campaign events between them to stoke enthusiasm and push turn out with a last pitch to these all-important swing state voters.

Top be sure, those voters have far more than the presidential race to consider.

downballot

In addition to the presidential contest, of course, North Carolina voters will choose a completely new:

  • governor;
  • lieutenant governor;
  • state attorney general;
  • state treasurer; and,
  • state superintendent of public instruction.

They will also make choices in races for:

  • secretary of state;
  • state auditor;
  • commissioner of agriculture;
  • a NC Supreme Court seat;
  • 3 seats on the NC Court of Appeals
  • 14 congressional contests (including a nationally recognized toss-up in NC-1);
  • every seat in the NC General Assembly (50 senate, 120 house); and,
  • untold local races for school board, county commission, city council, district court judges, etc., etc..

Beyond the horse races, North Carolina voters will vote on a constitutional amendment that resonates with one of the most prominent issue sets nationally — reinforcing citizen-only voting with an amendment to the NC Constitution.

In the race for governor, Republican Mark Robinson significantly trails Democrat Josh Stein in polls, facing a double digit deficit on Election Day. However, outsized Republican turn out in rural counties could make that race closer than polls suggest. Still, North Carolina has a history of ticket-splitting and plenty of experience with divided government between the executive and legislative branches.

The same effect may inform the results of other statewide candidates, and whether or not Republicans maintain their veto-proof supermajorities in the state legislature.

When it comes to congressional districts, Republicans enjoy a structural advantage as a result of redistricting. Currently split 7-7, Republicans are poised to gain at least three congressional seats, with the possibility of a fourth pickup in the high-dollar race for North Carolinas First Congressional District between Republican Laurie Buckhout and incumbent Democrat Don Davis.

The latter is where counties like Nash may pop up in the national conversation, with examinations and implications of black voter turn out that could sway more races across the state and country. Similarly, previous swing county bellwethers like New Hanover County will inform statewide trends in a state viewed nay many to be a microcosm of the country at large.

To that point, Election Day turn out in blue, urban centers like Raleigh (Wake), Durham, Greensboro, or Asheville — as compared to red rural and suburban areas like Johnston County, Union County — could reveal insights about national dynamics across the rural/urban divide.

The NC Democratic Party advertised its targeting of rural voters this cycle, a traditional stronghold for Republicans, while banking on urban Democrats following through in force. Results in North Carolina will show the effectiveness of that strategy, as well.

presidential prominence

So, while a great majority of states will fall into the background as the media mulls over precinct data in the battlegrounds, North Carolina is once again part of the main feature. Overall, voters have stepped confidently into their spotlight of presidential election prominence.

With mere hours left to go until polls close (7:30PM), North Carolina has already set new turnout records, promises to factor heavily into congressional control in our nation’s capital, and enjoys a must-win status for the next leader of the free world.

Follow Carolina Journal for more on the 2024 Elections as results come in.

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