North Carolina, which has consistently remained among the top three pork-producing states in the country, could soon feel the economic impact of rising tariffs. As the Trump administration intensifies its trade war, pork farmers across the state are preparing for potential financial fallout.
In the Carolina Journal’s series on the impact of tariffs and the trade war on major commodities in the state, sweet potatoes and tobacco, both of which North Carolina is the leading exporter, were analyzed. In this installment, pork, while NC is not the leader among US exporters, the state consistently remains in the top three, making it a major producer.
“Tariffs are a complicated process, and it is difficult to predict an outcome, so North Carolina’s ag industry is watching closely as discussions on trade take place,” Steve Troxler, commissioner of the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (NCDA&CS), told the Carolina Journal. “This is a negotiating tactic by the Trump administration, and it will take time.”
In 2024, Canada was North Carolina’s largest export market, receiving $8.7 billion worth of goods, which accounted for 20% of the state’s total goods exports, according to data from the Office of the US Trade Representative. Following Canada, the top export destinations included China with $5.9 billion, Mexico with $5.0 billion, France with $2.0 billion, and Japan with $1.2 billion. In 2022, North Carolina was the No. 3 state for pork exports at $781 million.
“International trade is essential to North Carolina’s pork producers, with more than 25% of America’s pork production exported across the globe,” continued Troxler. “Hopefully, these tariffs will give us a better place to negotiate from, and we will be able to come up with something that’s much more favorable to the United States and North Carolina producers.”
The hog and pork processing industry in North Carolina continues to serve as a significant economic driver, contributing more than $10 billion to the state’s overall financial output, according to the NC Pork Council. This figure is based on a 2019 economic impact analysis conducted by North Carolina State University. The world’s largest pork production plant, Smithfield Foods, is in Bladen County, North Carolina. Duplin County is the largest hog-producing county in the state and ranks as the No. 2 county in agriculture.
“At a time when they were just starting to recover from the biggest downturns in industry history, pork producers face considerable economic risks due to tariffs,” state Rep. Jimmy Dixon, R-Duplin, told the Carolina Journal. “The United States produces about 25% more pork than it consumes, making it highly dependent on export markets. This risk cascades to crop farmers (soybean and corn) who provide feed for pork producers.”
Increased tariffs and the resulting trade war directly impact pork farmers due to reduced export demand and increased costs for farming equipment. They also impact crop farmers, such as corn and soybean farmers, who grow the feed for hog farmers. The direct and indirect impact of the increased tariffs and spiraling trade war is seen in the effect on North Carolina agriculture and the economy.
“The United States risks long-term market share loss in international markets,” continued Dixon. “They will source more pork from Brazil and the European Union because US pork is non-competitive. On a level playing field, US pork is highly competitive and offsets our nation’s large trade deficit. China and other Asian countries are by far the largest market for offal products, parts of the pig not consumed in the United States. Offal adds significant value to each hog raised in the United States. These markets for offal products can’t be replaced.”
Last month, China announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on North Carolina exports, which include fruits and vegetables. In addition, China’s tariff on US goods was recently increased from 34% to 84%.
“When our farmers are attacked by those who want to put us out of business, it’s easy to forget that the vast majority of people stand behind what we do,” Roy Lee Lindsey, CEO of the NC Pork Council, told National Hog Farmer. “It’s important to keep our pulse on how the public feels so we can address the issues that matter most to consumers.”
A recent survey found that 87% of voters understand pork is a key contributor to North Carolina’s economy. The survey also found that 62% of voters believe most hog farms are owned by conglomerates such as Smithfield Foods, and only 30% believe family-owned operations run them. Contrary to popular belief, the opposite is the truth: 80% of North Carolina’s hog farms are family owned, often passed down through the generations.
One example of a family-owned farm is MAE Farm Meats, located about an hour outside Raleigh and owned by Mike Jones.
“There are a lot of things that come from other countries — the electronics, fencing materials, and repair parts are all sourced overseas — and if the price goes up immediately, that impacts my profit margin,” Jones told the Carolina Journal. “After 20 years, the equipment I’ve used for my pork operation must be replaced.”
Jones explained that the parts for many different things, like electrical fence boxes, are made in various countries. Equipment can have multiple parts, each made in a different country.
“My business is growing, and I must improve my existing infrastructure,” said Jones. “I need to add to my infrastructure, but it’s all going to cost much more now.”
Jones runs his operation with his son Max, who plans to take over the operation.