North Carolina needs to spend more than $12 billion to clear congested urban roads and prepare for traffic growth in the next 25 years, according to a national study released today by the Los Angeles-based Reason Foundation.

The study also describes traffic congestion in Charlotte and the Triangle as “severe.” The numbers suggest new traffic lanes would be less expensive and more effective than public transit in fighting congestion.

“North Carolina ranks eighth out of 50 states and the District of Columbia in terms of most lane-miles needed to deal with congestion,” said David Hartgen, the study’s lead author. “The state also ranks 11th in the total cost of those improvements.”

But investment in more than 4,350 new “lane-miles” of road could have major benefits for the state, Hartgen said. “If the state made these improvements, it would save 68 million hours per year that are now wasted in traffic jams.”

Hartgen is professor of Transportation Studies at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, and he is an adjunct policy analyst for the John Locke Foundation. He and his colleagues examined traffic congestion across the country.

Their 54-page report, Building Roads to Reduce Traffic Congestion in America’s Cities: How Much and at What Cost?, finds that traffic delays will increase by 65 percent across the United States by 2030. The number of congested lane-miles will increase by 50 percent.

Los Angeles faces the worst news, as researchers found that the city with the nation’s worst traffic delays will keep that dubious honor. By 2030, drivers in 11 other metro areas will face traffic jams as bad as the clogged Los Angeles roads of today. Those metro areas include Atlanta, Baltimore, Miami, and Washington, D.C.

No North Carolina city should expect Los Angeles-style traffic delays. But drivers in Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham will see longer commutes if there is no major investment in new lane-miles, Hartgen said. “The Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham areas are the 26th and 42nd most congested regions in the United States.”

Charlotte has a Travel Time Index of 1.31, Hartgen said. That means driving times during peak traffic hours are 31 percent longer than during off-peak times. The Triangle’s TTI is 1.19, with a 19 percent disparity between travel times in peak and off-peak times.

The situation is bound to get worse, Hartgen said. By 2030, Charlotte drivers can expect delays during peak driving hours to double, lasting 62 percent longer than off-peak trips. That means Charlotte’s average off-peak trip time, 20 minutes, will be 32 minutes long in peak hours. Triangle drivers can also expect delays to double during peak hours, lasting 37 percent longer than off-peak trips.

“For an idea of how severe these levels of congestion would be, projections for Charlotte show traffic delays comparable to today’s Chicago, and those for Raleigh-Durham will be like present-day Baltimore and San Jose,” Hartgen said.

Charlotte has looked to light rail to help address congestion, but new road capacity would prove much more effective, Hartgen said. “About 1,070 lane-miles are needed to deal with this congestion, costing about $2.9 billion over 25 years,” he said. “That’s about half of what we want to spend on the transit lines. In other words, for half of that transit cost, we could actually reduce Charlotte’s present and predicted congestion.”

The Triangle Transit Authority recently gave up plans to seek federal funding for a 28-mile commuter train line. Like Charlotte, the Triangle would benefit more from new lanes, Hartgen said.

“For Raleigh, the estimate is 1,204 lane-miles at $4.1 billion,” he said. “The cost per delay-hour saved — $12.92 — is considerably below the minimum of $20 required by current federal guidelines for rail starts.”

The study shows less severe congestion levels for other North Carolina cities. Fayetteville’s TTI would increase from 1.05 to 1.15 by 2030. That means peak-hour trips that now last 5 percent longer than other trips would last 15 percent longer than trips during non-peak hours.

Winston-Salem would see its TTI increase from 1.05 to 1.11. No other North Carolina city would see its TTI grow above 1.10. “However, the relative increase in delay projected over the next 25 years for these cities is quite high, ranging from 75 percent to 200 percent,” Hartgen said.

In other words, cities with little traffic congestion now will begin to notice a difference. “Such a significant increase will be sharply felt by local commuters in these smaller cities,” Hartgen said. “Cities like Greensboro, Wilmington, Gastonia, and Concord are facing future traffic delays similar to those currently experienced in much larger cities like Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland.”

Drivers in all metro areas could benefit from additional lane-miles of road, Hartgen said. “This investment would save an estimated 68 million hours per year that are now lost sitting in Tar Heel traffic, at a cost of $7.23 per delay-hour saved,” he said. “This does not account for additional benefits including lower fuel use, reduced accident rates, and lower vehicle operating costs.”

Hartgen is now conducting for the John Locke Foundation a more detailed study of the state’s congestion and methods of dealing with it. That study is due in February.

Mitch Kokai is associate editor of Carolina Journal.