Over 211,000 voters ages 18-24 have voted so far in the 2024 election, but young voters aren’t turning out to vote in the same fashion they turned out four years ago.

While young voters often lean more liberal, they are also more difficult to get to the polls. Total turnout among young adults, which Democrats often target on account of the group’s left-of-center tendencies, is down by 45,000 voters from this point in the 2020 election cycle. 

More young Republicans have voted than Democrats, beating their turnout levels four years ago at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. While young Republicans are up by 1,600 votes, closely in line with 2020 turnout, young Democrats are down by 37,000 votes, placing the two groups neck-and-neck in early voting turnout. Unaffiliated voter turnout is also down by about 10,000 votes. 

Turn-out for 18-25-year-old voters as of Monday, Oct. 28.

“Youth voters are one of the least likely to vote groups in America,” explained Jim Stirling, a research fellow at the John Locke Foundation. “It takes a lot of energy and get-out-the-vote efforts to get youth out to the polls. The fact that registered Democrats and Unaffiliateds are down makes it more difficult for Democratic candidates, since college-aged voters are more likely to vote Democrat.”

In recent statewide elections, victories have been won by as few as 401 votes, emphasizing the importance of young voter turnout. Stirling believes the drop in young adult voter turnout could spell trouble for Democratic candidates.

“While we expect there to be a higher turnout for this age group in the last week of early voting, I don’t see a situation where Democrats make up 37,000 votes that they’re currently behind,” he added.

This year’s early voting trends have left many uncertain as to what’s to come on election night. While some elections experts believe early voting data can be an indicator of what’s to come, others, like Gerry Cohen, a member of the Wake County Board of Elections who tracks election data, told the Carolina Journal that it’s too early to tell.

“I don’t know if you can make any assumption at all about turnout with still a week left with younger people tending to vote late,” explained Cohen. “This kind of analysis would probably be better made next Sunday when we really see the total early voting turnout. So yes, as of now, it’s down, but what we don’t know is the shift towards Election Day voting.”

Cohen pointed to a significant shift in the way young voters perceive themselves since 2008. Students used to be registered primarily as Democrats, but the vast majority of young voters at some of North Carolina’s top universities now consider themselves unaffiliated, with Republican registrations “startlingly low,” according to Gerry Cohen.

Party affiliations at North Carolina universities. (Courtesy of Gerry Cohen)

“As party affiliation of young people changed over those four previous presidential elections, their voting behavior did not change,” said Cohen. “This is the continuing progression of a long shift of younger people’s affiliation with a political party.”

Beginning in 2020, North Carolinians could register to vote online, an option previously unavailable. Registrants are able to leave race, gender, and party affiliation blank, which then assigns the voter as Unaffiliated. Working at in-person voter registration sites this year, Cohen noticed younger voters leaving the party affiliation field blank more often.