RALEIGH — As Republicans continue to portray Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan as joined at the hip to an unpopular President Obama, and with congressional approval ratings in the ditch, the freshman senator’s best campaign strategy is to avoid national issues, political observers say.
“I think in general trying to localize the race is probably the only strategy Hagan has. It doesn’t seem like she has a tremendous number of options,” said political science professor David McLennan at Meredith College’s Institute for Political Leadership.
Hagan, who is “not necessarily a prominent Democrat,” is locked in a tight race with state House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, whose statewide name recognition is generally considered thin among voters, McLennan said.
Despite a race many have considered lackluster thus far, the North Carolina Senate seat is considered pivotal for control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans need to pick up six seats to oust Democrats from the majority.
Some pundits consider Hagan among the most vulnerable Senate Democrats, and in light of that, she is shifting to the political center.
“She’s got advertising out saying she is the most moderate candidate,” McLennan said.
“So turning the table and attacking Tillis, and the General Assembly, is just part of the same strategy of trying to say … she reflects more North Carolinian views, and she’s moderate just like North Carolinians,” McLennan said.
“She’s trying to get away from anything that can be hung on her that says Washington, D.C., Barack Obama, Affordable Care Act, immigration failure, whatever it may be,” he said.
One potential pitfall to running as a moderate could be the makeup of this year’s midterm electorate.
“There is some evidence out there right now that suggests the voting electorate in November 2014 is going to be more similar to the voting electorate in November 2010 than it was in 2012,” McLennan said.
“So if we have an electorate that looks like 2010, you might say that makes North Carolina a little more conservative than moderate,” McLennan said. The voting mix in 2012 was more middle of the road.
Obama won North Carolina in 2008 against Republican Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., giving Hagan the coattails to defeat incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole. But the president lost the state in 2012 to Mitt Romney, and Hagan may not get the same push this year she enjoyed in 2008.
McLennan said Hagan likely is depicting herself as slightly to the right of center is to attract suburban women voters, who in recent cycles have become a key voting bloc.
“They’re a big demographic group, but they’re not as easily ideologically divided as, say, white males, African-American males, that sort of thing,” McLennan said.
And Tillis won’t concede that voting sector.
“I think as we get deeper into the election cycle, he’ll defend his General Assembly record, the votes on teacher pay, etc., as a way to appeal to the female suburban vote,” McLennan said.
Hagan and state Democrats have attacked Tillis on education issues. They insist this year’s budget adjustments, crafted by Republicans and including one of the largest teacher pay hikes in state history, were a bad deal for education.
“As the opposition, you’re not in a very good position” when such a large teacher pay increase is enacted by the other political party, said Andy Taylor, professor of political science in the School of Public and International Affairs at N.C. State University.
It’s imperative to attack, “otherwise you lose all ability to differentiate yourself from the majority,” and without a contrasting claim voters would have no reason to oppose Tillis and the Republicans, Taylor said.
By not stepping down as House speaker after declaring his U.S. Senate candidacy, Tillis can use several legislative accomplishments to counter portrayals by Democrats and the Hagan campaign that he is an “extreme conservative and mean-spirited guy,” Taylor said.
Passing the large teacher pay raise defies that political stereotype, and had Tillis stepped down, “that argument would have been difficult to make. In fact, the Democrats might have come back and said it took Tillis to get out of there for this to get done,” Taylor said.
McLennan said Tillis’ decision to remain speaker was “pretty much a wash” politically. The only drawback might be was that it kept Tillis off the campaign trail full-time raising money and meeting voters.
He also said the extended budget battles between the Tillis-led House and the Senate under leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, should not handicap the Tillis campaign, despite media reports routinely pointing out both chambers are under GOP control.
“For those of us watching, we realize that’s true regardless of who’s in control. The Senate never likes the House. The House never likes the Senate,” said Thomas Mills, a Democratic political consultant and editor of the Carrboro-based Politics NC blog.
“There is no monolithic Republican thing going on over in the legislature. It’s a bunch of personalities with competing interests, competing rivalries, and that is not new to the Republicans taking control of the legislature,” Mills said.
“I think it’s the way the Founders meant for it to be,” Mills said. “They set up a system that was supposed to be clumsy, and hard to get stuff done so we don’t move so fast that we screw stuff up really bad, and that’s kind of what you’re seeing.”
McLennan does not foresee Obama making campaign appearances for Hagan in North Carolina.
“The more the Tillis folks can link her with Obama, that could hurt her, particularly with people who aren’t paying that much attention” to issues, he said.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll has Tillis leading Hagan among likely voters 45 percent to 40 percent. The survey shows Obama’s approval rating at 48 percent, and disapproval at 49 percent.
Obama might hold Washington fundraisers for Hagan and support her in other ways than coming here, McLennan said.
“I think the big question is will Bill Clinton come down here. Bill Clinton has a stake in keeping the Senate if, for example, Hillary runs in 2016,” McLennan said. Hillary Clinton might campaign here “although I’m not so sure if she’s as popular as her husband.”
Unless Tillis takes a more solid lead in the polls, some GOP presidential candidates may be reluctant to come to the state to campaign for him, McLennan said. They may prefer to align themselves with candidates who are perceived to be sure-fire winners.
If that happens it could pose challenges to Tillis’ fundraising efforts to match Hagan’s superior campaign cash, McLennan said.
According to the Federal Election Commission’s most recent quarterly report filed in July, Hagan has spent $3.7 million since her primary run and has $8.7 million cash on hand. Tillis spent $1.4 million and has $1.5 million cash on hand.
McLennan said Hagan has been running attack ads against Tillis for months, but wonders if they are an effective use of campaign funds, since most voters likely won’t start paying attention until after Labor Day or later. The drumbeat of ads also could backfire by raising Tillis’ name recognition among voters.
“She’s also got to be aware that the heavy guns have not come out yet” among independent expenditure groups attacking her, McLennan said. “And I think that the Tillis campaign has yet to go full bore on Hagan. So she’s got to keep on the attack, and keep positioning herself, but she’s got to be ready to play some defense as well.”
Dan E. Way (@danway_carolina) is an associate editor of Carolina Journal.