U.S. Rep. Charles Taylor, N.C. 11, has faced well-financed challengers and been considered vulnerable before in his eight previous House campaigns, but a confluence of events and a high-profile candidate might make 2006 especially challenging for him.

Why? Because unlike previous elections in which his Democrat opposition have been lesser-knowns who hailed from (relative) metropolises Asheville and Hendersonville, this year the party has recruited someone a lot like Taylor, from a small town in his sprawling, mountainous district. And this time the challenger also has star power: former University of Tennessee quarterback Heath Shuler.

“Heath is a different kind of Democrat,” said his campaign’s communications director, Andrew Whalen. “He’s from the western part of the district (Bryson City in Swain County). In the past Democrats have been hurt in the rural part of the district.”

True enough, because even though strongly Democratic Buncombe County, which includes Asheville, contains about one-third of the district’s voters, Brevard resident Taylor has been able to hold the seat since 1990. However, his average winning percentage has declined from a high of 60 percent in 1994 to 55 percent in 2004. That’s his lowest election approval since his first victory for the seat in 1990, when he won 51 percent of the vote.

Whalen, and national Democrats, think Shuler’s background and his conservative views on some significant issues make him one of their strongest competitors in the country against incumbent House Republicans. Few congressional districts, because of gerrymanders, are thought to be winnable targets that could help Democrats win back the House.

In the recent past North Carolina has seemed to be devoid of such potential for either major political party to swing a seat back into their column. Eighth District Rep. Robin Hayes, a Republican, has been thought to be vulnerable this decade, but Democrats have failed to mount strong enough challengers there. Meanwhile, Taylor has been considered a relatively safe incumbent.

No more, as national political handicappers rate the 11th race as the most competitive in North Carolina. Even Charlie Cook, who publishes the widely respected Cook Political Report, in July moved the Taylor/Shuler race from his “Leaning Republican” column to a “toss-up.”

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said a Democratic tailwind that is expected to last into fall could swoop Shuler to victory.

“Taylor has never faced an atmosphere quite as adverse to his party as 2006 presents,” he wrote in his most recent update on the 11th District race.

That adversity largely has to do with public perception of the Iraq war’s prosecution; high gasoline prices despite a good economy; President Bush’s low approval ratings; excessive spending by Congress including funding for pork projects; and scandals that include campaign contributions from Indian tribes affiliated with former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who was convicted in a scandal.

Shuler hasn’t hesitated to cite the scandals, and the Republicans’ national problems, as a need for change.

“These things are still sort of hanging over Taylor,” said Andrew Taylor (no relation), a political science professor at North Carolina State University. “You could say this fits with the basic story about Republicans.”

Gibbs Knotts, a Western Carolina University political science professor, said Taylor has weathered such allegations in the past.

“He’s had some tough races before, but he always seems to pull them out,” Knotts said.

But even Taylor sees a more challenging electoral outlook this year for the GOP.

“The generic ballot and the general political environment show that it’s going to be a tough year for many Republicans all across the country,” he said in e-mailed answers to questions from Carolina Journal. “But this race will be run on the issues that matter here in Western North Carolina — creating jobs and economic opportunity, strengthening our families, fighting threats like illegal immigration, and protecting our mountain heritage and resources.”

It’s on immigration that Taylor in July launched his first radio campaign advertisement, nationalizing the issue and painting Shuler with a Democratic broad-brush. According to the Asheville Citizen-Times, Taylor’s ad accuses Shuler and Democrats of wanting to secure the votes of illegal aliens by keeping the borders weak. Shuler strongly denied the charges made in the ad.

“I support all measures to secure our borders and stop the flow of illegal immigrants,” Shuler said in a statement July 10. “I oppose any type of amnesty for people who have entered our country illegally and believe illegal immigrants should be deported as soon as they are found.”

For their part, Democrats planned to spend $400,000 on radio ads in seven congressional districts, including North Carolina’s 11th, the Associated Press reported. The ads call attention to Republican opposition to a minimum-wage increase. Shuler piggybacked on the ads with further criticism of Taylor on the issue, after the General Assembly approved a $1 increase of the minimum wage last month.

“Charles Taylor’s repeated opposition to increasing the federal minimum wage is hurting working families here in western North Carolina, throughout our state, and across the country,” Shuler said.

Taylor says he is confident that his constituents will return him for a ninth term, if for no other reason than to avoid placing liberals that he says control the Democratic party in positions of congressional power.

The tree farmer from Transylvania County might feel the need to tie Shuler to the national party because so many similarities exist between the two, as the Citizen-Times explained in late June. Both are strong Second Amendment supporters; are pro-life (Taylor wants Roe v. Wade overturned, while Shuler allows for exemptions in the cases of rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is at risk); oppose same-sex marriage; and have strong immigration control stances.

That leaves both candidates to differentiate themselves on economic issues such as the minimum wage and jobs, as well as creating a referendum on their respective parties’ national performance. Both have said they will spend whatever it takes to win. After the second quarter of this year Shuler reported $668,745 in cash on hand, while Taylor had $237,924 on hand. Taylor has vast personal wealth, however, and hasn’t hesitated to use it in the past.

Andrew Taylor said the race is clearly a bellwether for both parties’ national fortunes this fall. Incumbency should favor Rep. Taylor, he said, despite his seemingly stronger opponent.

“If the Republicans lose that seat,” he said, “it’s an indicator of a pretty poor year.”

Paul Chesser is associate editor of Carolina Journal.