December will mark the 100th anniversary of the world’s first airplane flight, which took place at Kitty Hawk. To commemorate the event, the state is conducting a yearlong celebration. While flight has tremendously changed society, cities in North Carolina are losing scheduled airline service. Aside from the state of the economy and the aftereffects of Sept. 11, fundamental changes in the airline industry make it unlikely that passenger flights will again grace airfields in several of the state’s cities.

In 1999, 14 North Carolina cities had scheduled airline service. They were Asheville, Charlotte, Fayetteville, Greensboro, Greenville, Hickory, Jacksonville, Kinston, New Bern, Southern Pines, Raleigh, Rocky Mount, Wilmington, and Winston-Salem. Today, Hickory, Kinston, Rocky Mount, Southern Pines, Winston-Salem no longer have service.

Flights from most North Carolina cities are limited to service to US Airways’ Charlotte hub, where passengers can connect to flights to many other cities. Asheville, Wilmington, and Fayetteville feature service from both Delta and US Airways. Charlotte, Greensboro, and Raleigh all are served by a variety of airlines, which provide an even wider range of destination choices.

The economy and Sept. 11

The airline industry has always been cyclical. In good times, more business and individuals have the discretionary income to fly. Conversely, in bad times, there’s less demand for air travel. In addition to a weak economy, people’s willingness to fly has been diminished by the events of Sept. 11.

An October 2002 survey showed that air travel on routes of 200 to 400 miles was down by 22 percent in the year after Sept. 11. The Boyd Group, a Colorado-based aviation consulting firm, projects that airline traffic in the United States will not return to its 2000 levels until about 2008.

Airlines have reduced or eliminated marginal routes in these tough times. The Hickory area has been hard hit, with an unemployment rate currently at 8.1 percent. In Rocky Mount, the unemployment rate reached 9 percent in April 2003.For much of 2002, the region experienced more than 10 percent unemployment.

Service to these smaller markets, which are near, respectively, Charlotte and Raleigh, was halted in 2001 and 2002. Service is unlikely to resume, barring significant changes in population and income.

Regional jets arrive

While the state of the economy and the public’s reduced willingness to travel after Sept. 11 have shaken the airline industry, many smaller communities would have had difficulties retaining air service even in better times. The large-scale introduction of “regional jets” is causing sweeping changes in the industry, including the elimination of service to many smaller cities.

Traditionally service to secondary markets has been provided on 19-50 seat turboprop aircraft such as the Jetstream 31, Beech 1900, and de Havilland DHC-8. Regional jets, in contrast, typically seat 50 to 70 people, and are faster and have greater range than turboprop aircraft.

In May, US Airways placed an order for 170 additional regional jets. Its commuter partners already operate 110 of the aircraft. The company noted :

“The RJs also will enable us to increase hub feed by adding new markets that were too distant for turboprop aircraft, and replace current turboprop flying, which will please many customers who prefer jet aircraft. Regional jets will allow us to replace and complement larger jet aircraft on routes with poor to marginal performance, which then can be redeployed to operate in more profitable destinations, such as the Caribbean and on other routes where we currently do not fly.”

The airline had already started flying to both Little Rock, Ark., and Montreal from Charlotte on 50-seat regional jets. It has just begun offering nonstop service between Wilmington and New York City’s La Guardia Airport using a regional jet. The carrier is also replacing larger Boeing and Airbus aircraft with regional jets on flights between its Charlotte hub and St. Louis.

As more regional jets enter service, they will replace turboprops on the routes from Charlotte to the eastern part of the state. Given their larger size and higher operating costs, a substantial amount of demand must exist for such service to be profitable.

With typical costs and revenue yields, three regional jet flights a day would require roughly a combined 100 passengers to break even. Allowing for reduced flight schedules on weekend and holidays, 30,000 passengers a year would seem a minimum number to sustain even minimal regional jet service.

Given recent market patterns, whether more than seven airports in North Carolina can consistently generate such passenger levels is an open question.

Lowrey is associate editor at Carolina Journal.