The 2004 elections for the Mecklenburg County Commission offer both residents and outside observers some intriguing lessons about intra-party tensions in North Carolina and the issues shaping local politics in the Tar Heel State. One immediate lesson is, unfortunately, applicable statewide: even the most populous county in North Carolina lacks a large number of truly competitive races.

Interestingly, all commissioner terms in Mecklenburg are two years. The board is composed of nine commissioners, six elected within districts and the remaining three elected countywide.

Incumbent Republican Jim Puckett in District 1 faces no primary or general election opponent. The same goes for four other incumbents: Democrat Norman Mitchell in District 2, Democrat Valerie Woodard in District 3, Democrat Dumont Clarke in District 4 and Republican Bill James in District 6.

District 5 looks to be a bit more interesting and will be decided on the July 20th GOP primary as there is no Democrat running in this Republican-leaning district. Attorney and fiscal conservative Dan Bishop is being endorsed by current District 5 commissioner Ruth Samuelson, who is now seeking election to an at-large seat. Bishop is running against former county commissioner Carla DuPuy. DuPuy has high name recognition and will be a formidable opponent. Having voted for several tax increases and working closely with Democrats while on the commission, DuPuy’s higher name ID might not translate into high levels of support among conservative primary voters. Richard Hough is also running for that seat, but doesn’t have name ID or any high-profile endorsements. One source suggested that the breakdown of county-commission districts should end up with 3 Rs and 3 Ds — unless DuPuy wins and makes it 3.5 Ds to 2.5Rs.

And then there are the three at-large seats. This is where the battle for partisan control will be won. Incumbent Democrat and former Chairman Parks Helms is running a strong campaign. An attorney and former five-term member of the state legislature, Helms is well known and a favorite of both uptown business Democrats and liberals.

Willhelminia Rembert, Jennifer Roberts, and Donna Dawson are also Democrats running in this best-of-three primary contest. Rembert is the former chairwoman of the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Board of Education and an associate vice president at Winthrop University who lost her school-board seat last year in what many felt was a poorly run campaign. She also was linked to another bad candidate with a similar name. Helms encouraged Rembert to seek a political comeback on the county commission.

Roberts is a former executive director of the Charlotte World Affairs Council. She is stressing education funding, environmental protection, and economic development in her campaign. Helms has also endorsed Roberts. Dawson works in the health-insurance industry and wants to promote greater tolerance of diversity and reduce redundancy in county government to save money.

The question is, who will be the odd woman out in this primary? Helms and Rembert will probably survive. The third slot will likely go to either Roberts or Dawson. There may be a racial dynamic at play, here: Rembert and Dawnson are African-American.

On the Republican side, Larry “throw the bum’s out” Bumgardner, Andy Dulin, Libertarian turned Republican Lewis Guignard and Ruth Samuelson (current District 5 commissioner) are running as well as at-large incumbent Dan Ramirez. Another GOP incumbent, Commission Chairman Tom Cox, is not seeking reelection.

Ramirez is a successful Hispanic businessman in the area that ran a strong campaign and, I’m told, stands a great chance of earning one of the three GOP tickets to the general election. Samuelson brings an established political base to the race, while Guignard has gained countywide recognition over the years as an activist on fiscal issues with Citizens for Effective Government. Bumgardner is emphasizing taxes and law enforcement (his web site is PoliceCoverage.com). Dulin is in residential real estate and promises to run county government like a business and seek more cost-efficiency in the public schools. Some say Samuelson and Guignard have the best chance of winning the other two party nominations, but Bumgardner is running on a clear issue and Dulin is running a strong e-campaign.

As with many other races this year, guessing at the outcome is difficult because no one can confidently answer the big question: who will show up to vote in July?

Adams is a contributing editor at Carolina Journal and the director of JLF’s Center for Local Innovation.