After the North Carolina House majority swerved to Republicans Friday, political observers at a John Locke Foundation luncheon in Raleigh Monday heard election analysis from state and national pundits.

A five-member panel offered varying thoughts on the significance of the Nov. 5 election, but all agreed that circumstances and actions aligned in order for Republicans to do well — surprisingly — almost everywhere.

“Nobody saw anything in terms of a tide or a wave,” said David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union in Washington.

He added that the president took nearly everyone by surprise with his tireless campaigning in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

“George W. Bush made this his election,” Keene said, adding that the president got “his” base out.

Panel member Bill Lee of Tel Opinion Research in Washington also said the president helped seal the election for the GOP because he was a “visible [president] who was all over the country.” Lee said the impending threat of war and national economic turmoil drove voters to stability.

“The voters were looking for security, and they saw the chief executive very active,” he said.

Lee contrasted the energy and symbolism of President Bush, who appeared in North Carolina on behalf of Senator-elect Elizabeth Dole five times, with the disarray of Democrats.

“The Democrats were not able to advance an issue,” Lee said. “There was no Democratic leadership nationally.”

Lee also attributed GOP successes, based on his polling information, to a 2 percent increased turnout compared to the last mid-term election, which resulted in 4.5 million more votes nationwide. He said most of those went to Republicans. He also said the generic vote trended towards the GOP throughout most of the pre-election period, with most poll respondents saying the economy was the most important issue affecting their vote.

News & Observer political columnist Rob Christensen agreed that “the election was obviously just right for the Republican Party,” but said the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 and subsequent war talk played a large part in the party’s successes. Most of Christensen’s election coverage assignments focused on the Dole race against Democrat Erskine Bowles, which he said was only a help to Republican races in North Carolina.

Christensen said that in Dole, the national Republican party had recruited “a rock star,” adding that “she was one of the most popular women in the country.” Saying he had not seen anything like her campaign before, Christensen suggested she may have been a better candidate than Jesse Helms, whom she will replace.

Christensen said he observed that many women who were reliable Democratic voters turned out at Dole rallies. He also said Bowles in many ways was not the right candidate to oppose Dole because of his perceived position changes on free trade, in addition to tepid support from black constituencies and the state’s teachers’ union.

Locke Foundation President John Hood said the presence of Dole on the ballot didn’t help state GOP candidates much, but redistricting, tax increases and other local issues likely played a larger role.

Chesser is associate editor of Carolina Journal.