Recently released Civitas Institute polls show two Republican state Senate incumbents hold significant leads over their opponents.
The polls, which look at the races in N.C. Senate Districts 17 and 18, each surveyed 400 registered voters from Oct. 3 to Oct. 8. SurveyUSA, on behalf of the conservative public policy organization, used a blended sample and mixed-mode method to question voters in the two districts. The margin of error for the District 17 poll is plus or minus 6.3 percent; plus or minus 6 percent for the District 18 poll.
In the District 17 poll, Sen. Tamara Barringer, R-Wake, is ahead of her Democratic and Libertarian opponents. A 48-percent plurality said they would vote for Barringer, compared to 36 percent who would pick Sam Searcy, the Democratic candidate. The Libertarian candidate, Bruce Basson, got 4 percent of the vote. Thirteen percent of voters are undecided.
A similar picture emerges in the District 18 poll, where Sen. John Alexander, R-Wake, leads Democratic candidate Mack Paul and Libertarian candidate Brad Hessel. Forty-four percent of voters said they would vote for Alexander, while 36 percent said they would vote for Paul. Only 3 percent picked Hessel, and 17 percent are undecided.
Donald Bryson, president of Civitas Institute, said he was surprised to find the two Republican candidates in the lead beyond the margin of error.
“These are two hotly contested districts in an urban county in North Carolina that is trending more blue than it is red,” Bryson said. “I was really surprised to see these numbers.”
Bryson theorized on several reasons behind the leads, but noted that it’s hard to say for sure what’s driving the poll numbers.
One possibility is voters are enthused in the wake of the Kavanaugh hearing. During the confirmation hearing for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, U.S. senators were embroiled in a battle over sexual assault allegations against the nominee. The highly televised event bitterly divided Americans, mostly along party lines.
“Looking at national polls, it’s hard to say for sure, but … there seems to be a post-Kavanaugh bounce in favor of Republicans,” Bryson said. “I’m curious to see if that is part of this, but I’m not 100 percent sure how to test if that is the case for state legislature races.”
What the poll doesn’t measure is enthusiasm, which, Bryson said, could make all the difference.
“This could be a very small bounce just for a couple of weeks and then tightens as we get closer to the election, but if there is a lot of anger and that good amount of anger turns into a good amount of enthusiasm, then that might spell bad news for Democrats looking to get into the legislature,” Bryson said.
Another theory is the Republican candidates are benefiting from positive economic conditions in Wake County.
“Wake County is enjoying a really good, healthy economy with low unemployment rates and high wage growth,” Bryson said. “I think Republicans in the General Assembly might be enjoying part of that.”
Voters in both polls indicated they trust Republicans more than Democrats in the state legislature to handle policies affecting jobs and the economy in North Carolina. In the Senate District 17 poll, 50 percent of voters said they trust Republicans to do the job, while 40 percent trust in Democrats. Similarly, in the Senate District 18 poll, 48 percent of voters picked Republicans, and 42 percent chose Democrats.