The number of uncontested seats in the N.C. General Assembly has risen 41 percent since 2010, and the dearth of competition gives Democrats an initial boost in state House races in the Nov. 8 general election, while Republicans have a leg up in the Senate.
Before the first vote is cast in the legislative races, Democrats will have a 30-27 margin over Republicans in the House, and Republicans will assume an 11-4 advantage over Democrats in the Senate because candidates in those races did not draw any opposition from another party.
Even with those outcomes settled, it would appear the Republicans will maintain their majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly, though supermajority control could be in peril in the House, the Senate, or both.
“It’s to the detriment of the process,” N.C. State University political science professor Andy Taylor said of the growing number of uncontested legislative victories. “It’s disarming for people who like competitiveness because they think it holds elected officials more accountable, and they don’t have the freedom to do what they want to do.”
David McLennan, political science professor at Meredith College, agrees with Taylor that competition is lacking in a large way this year.
“There are some competitive races, particularly in the Triangle and a few in Mecklenburg [County], but beyond that there’s just not a whole lot, and that’s one of the strengths for the Republicans to stay in power,” McLennan said. “Maybe the supermajority is threatened, but the likelihood of a wave election just doesn’t seem possible.”
Even if the Democrats pick up enough seats to trim the GOP’s majorities, McLennan doesn’t perceive the current direction, dynamics, or tenor of the General Assembly changing.
“Maybe to a small degree it changes things, but even if [Republicans hold] a strong majority and not a supermajority, the way that the General Assembly seems to be polarized between a very liberal group of Democrats and a very conservative group of Republicans, you won’t see a lot of crossover votes,” McLennan said, “and of course everything depends on who wins the governorship.”
What might have a larger effect is who fills the leadership positions vacated by retiring senior members of the Republican Caucus, and how they operate, McLennan said.
In 2010 there were 51 uncontested legislative races. That rose to 80 districts in 2014, but declined somewhat to 72 this year.
In 2016 Republicans held veto-proof three-fifths supermajorities in both House and Senate. They outnumbered Democrats 74-45 in the House, with one unaffiliated member, and secured a 34-16 margin in the Senate. A supermajority requires 72 members in the House, and 30 in the Senate.
Taylor says for the Democrats to reclaim control of either chamber, the House may be the more likely location. That still would require a significant change in the electorate. Here is why, using conventional voting behavior patterns compiled by the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation.
The Democrats have won 30 seats unopposed. They would need to win all nine districts rated by NCFEF as strong Democrat, then run the table on all seven of the competitive districts, the two districts that lean Democrat, and all 10 leaning Republican districts. Even that success would give them a total of 58 seats. Democrats would have to win at least three of the remaining 35 strong Republican districts to earn the majority.
For Republicans to maintain their supermajority, they would start with the 27 unopposed seats. One plausible method, even if they lost all seven competitive races, would be to win all 35 strong Republican and all 10 leaning Republican seats.
It is far less likely the Democrats could regain control of the Senate. Starting with the four unopposed seats they’ve won, victories in the 12 strong Democrat seats would give them 16. No districts lean Democrat. The only four leaning districts all tilt Republican. There are only four competitive districts. If Democrats won all eight of those seats, they would have 24. That still would leave the Republicans with a 26-24 majority.
For Republicans to preserve their supermajority of 30, the most likely method would be to win all 15 strong Republican districts in addition to their 11 uncontested wins for 26 seats. They would then have to win just four of the eight districts that are rated either competitive or leaning Republican.
Taylor said the way the district maps are drawn in a partisan manner is a “significant” factor in the rise of uncontested races.
Challengers might be reluctant to come forward because it would be “very difficult to run a campaign and win” on the opposing party ticket, he said.
“There’s significant costs to run a campaign in terms of time, financially, opportunity costs involved for candidates, and with diminished prospects of victory that probably puts them off a little bit,” Taylor said.
“It may also be that life in the General Assembly, even if you did win, doesn’t seem quite as fun as it did in the past,” Taylor said.
“The hours are getting longer, the citizens are getting ornerier, the pay is not very good, and we’ve seen a large number of retirements from influential members in the last session,” which could signal that if those “who seem to have all the power and all the perks aren’t enjoying it very much,” perhaps tenure in the legislature not worth pursuing, Taylor said.
He does not think many potential challengers regret their decisions not to run in uncontested races despite voter dissatisfaction with the presidential nominee, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Such second thoughts might be occurring “possibly at the margins,” Taylor said, “but I think that both of them are so disliked that it’s a wash as far as that’s concerned.”
If anything, he said, “it may be more off-putting because if people are annoyed at the presidential candidates, then you might have to work harder with other candidates in the party on getting out the vote,” Taylor said.
“There’s a lot of concern in the state party, and state parties across the country, and in the [Republican National Committee]” that with Trump at the top of the ticket, they’re going to have to work extra hard to get out votes and raise money “because the natural enthusiasm isn’t there, and I assume it’s the same on the Democratic side,” Taylor said.