Despite media reports about recent waves of voter registrations that mean North Carolinians are more interested than ever in this year’s presidential election, projections show that the level of attention is in line with the historic 2000 contest.

State Board of Elections Executive Director Gary Bartlett has said that voter registration in the state could reach 5.5 million, which would represent a jump of 7.4 percent over 2000’s 5.1 million. However, if trends held, total voting-age population grew by about 6 percent between 2000 and 2004, from 6.08 million to between 6.4 million and 6.5 million.

If 5.5 million North Carolinians registered to vote in 2004, they would account for between 84.5 percent and 86 percent of the total voting-age population. That figure is close to 2000’s proportion, when 84 percent of the voting-age population was registered to vote. In that case the recent anecdotal evidence about a flurry of registrations could signify little more than procrastinating voters trying to beat a deadline.

Dr. Andrew Taylor, a professor of political science at North Carolina State University, said registration numbers are less significant than those who actually vote.

“It’s wrong to say that it will result in increased turnout,” he said. “Just because you get them registered doesn’t mean they’re going to go vote.”

Taylor said that because voter registration is much more accessible now, especially through the Division of Motor Vehicles, that the numbers were bound to increase. Only 70 percent of the state’s voting-age population registered in 1988, but after Motor Voter laws were implemented in 1995, the percentage jumped to 79 percent in 1996 and 84 percent in 2000. If Bartlett’s projection is accurate, voter registration may have leveled off.

Taylor said that voter turnout nationwide dropped after the Motor Voter law was enacted. In 1992, 55.2 percent of the voting-age population cast ballots in the presidential-year election. Four years later, after Motor Voter, participation dropped to 49 percent. In 2000, voter turnout rose to 51 percent.

Taylor was also skeptical about the passion behind the voter registration numbers, wondering whether people were simply following the path of least resistance. He said political groups have engaged in massive efforts to register voters, and that people might be doing so just “to get rid of them.”

The rate of increase in registered voters over the last four presidential cycles has slowed in North Carolina as well. The number of registered voters increased by 11.2 percent in 1992 compared to 1988; by 13.4 percent in 1996 over 1992; and by 18.3 percent in 2000 over 1996. But Bartlett’s estimate of 5.5 million registrations would mean only a 7.4 percent increase in 2004 compared to 2000.

Bob Rauf, information services director for the State Board of Elections, said the diminished rate of growth might be because of improved technology. He said the voter rolls are purged of outdated information quicker now.

“Now we’re managing things better for deaths and duplicates,” he said.

Paul Chesser is associate editor of Carolina Journal. Contact him at [email protected].