RALEIGH – The 2004 governor’s race is, even by political standards, a long way off. But over the next few weeks and months, I suspect that the outlines of the coming campaign will start to present themselves.

Earlier this month, Gov. Mike Easley signaled his intention to run for reelection. That he had to do this so early in his tenure is a sign of Easley’s political problem. His approval rating is barely over 50 percent (given the low attention voters pay to state offices until election years, this is like a president sinking to 40 percent approval). His agenda has largely collapsed into a so-far fruitless quest for a state-run lottery, which he now improbably hopes state lawmakers will enact without recourse to a public referendum.

And, not to mince words, much of the Democratic Party establishment dislikes Easley. They think him odd, uninspiring, and unwilling to do the things – show up at ribbon-cutting, stroke donors, etc. – that the leader of a state party is supposed to do.

That’s not to suggest Easley doesn’t have his supporters. He’s pretty much left the university system alone, and has at least promised the teacher union the usual combination of protection and cash. Many folks in the media like the fact that he raised taxes last year, and are willing to give him a pass on the hypocrisy of it (he ran as a fiscal conservative in 2000 who would protect the taxpayer from Republican Richard Vinroot, who had raised taxes while on the Charlotte city council).

A congenial person one-on-one, the governor seems to have a circle of close and loyal friends and, generally speaking, plays well with others; his predecessor, Jim Hunt, was too much to take for some Democratic politicians, so Easley’s laid-back approach (one way of putting it) feels more comfortable to them.

Still, you hear more grumbling from prominent Dems than you hear praise, which is one reason Easley’ reelection bid will, I think, be a difficult one – should he, in fact, decide to run, a decision independent of the decision to say he’s running now. He needed to telegraph a reelection campaign in order to stay relevant, but no one should mistake that for a clear indication of his intentions. They’ll surely be affected by how the next couple of years play out. A new redistricting map, a toss-up or even hostile legislature in ’03, a broadening political scandal in DMV and other state agencies, continued economic problems – there are a lot of variables here.

I’m not the only one who thinks so. Potential gubernatorial candidates for 2004 are already jockeying for position. Tomorrow, I’ll discuss Moore, Cooper, Perdue, Bowles, Blue, Vinroot, Daughtry, Neely, Ballentine, Burr, Hayes, and a few surprises.