RALEIGH – In the spirit of the political times, when identity seems so often to trump ideas, I’ll throw out the following proposition: there are at least two white guys in North Carolina, one Democrat and one Republican, who are rooting for the black guy to defeat the white gal in next Tuesday’s pivotal presidential primaries.

Now, here’s your decoder ring. The two North Carolina guys I’m thinking of are gubernatorial candidates Richard Moore and Pat McCrory. The presidential primaries in question are the vote-rich states of Texas and Ohio, where Barack Obama has been eroding Hillary Clinton’s early leads and can put the nomination away by winning at least one of them.

The race to succeed Gov. Mike Easley has been going on for years, really, and has been truly spirited since last fall. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Moore have traded jabs, raised millions of dollars, and used the cash to trade more-expensive jabs. But none of it has appeared to change the relative positions of the two candidates. Perdue has a solid though not insurmountable lead in many polls, and can properly be viewed as the frontrunner. Moore has potential crossover appeal in the general election, but his path to the nomination is unclear.

Among Republicans, there has been more movement over recent months. Sen. Fred Smith’s campaign has held dozens of local events and steadily moved up his statewide profile and poll numbers. Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory’s entrance into the race last month scrambled everyone’s scenarios and somewhat reduced the running room for former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr and Salisbury attorney Bill Graham, who was probably counting on support in the same vote-rich counties in the Charlotte media market where McCrory has strong name recognition from his lengthy mayoral service.

A closer look at the numbers reveals why both Moore and McCrory have an interest in Obama winning the Democratic presidential nomination sooner rather than later. For Moore, the issue is the composition of the May primary electorate. As recent voter-registration trends indicate, there is a great deal of enthusiasm for Obama among African-American and younger voters. If the presidential nomination remains unsettled through May 7, these voters will be highly motivated to turn out for Obama – and judging by recent polling, they are inclined towards Perdue in the governor’s race.

In the just-released Civitas Institute poll for February, for example, Moore and Perdue are close together in support among white voters, at 28 percent and 26 percent respectively, but Perdue has a 26-point edge among black voters. Regarding age, Perdue leads Moore among voters under 55, while Moore leads Perdue among older voters.

Given that Civitas employs a likely-voter screen that yields a relatively older sample than most, the Obama effect on a Perdue-Moore matchup is likely understated. Simply put, it would be in Moore’s interest for the presidential race to be wrapped up, so that the May electorate looks more like past Democratic primary turnouts rather than like those of, say, Super Tuesday states.

On the Republican side, it’s not so much voter motivation as ballot choice that could affect McCrory’s chances to win the GOP nomination for governor in May. While the Civitas poll puts McCrory and Smith close together at 18 percent and 17 percent respectively – with a staggering 56 percent of respondents undecided – the cross-tabs show that Smith is somewhat stronger among Republicans and conservatives while McCrory is somewhat stronger among independents and moderates.

If the latter groups head to the polls on May 6 intent on voting for Obama over Clinton (which appears to be their preference), then they’ll have to pick the Democratic ballot. They can’t then vote for McCrory. But if the presidential race is settled, some might pick the GOP ballot, giving him some help in the sheer vote count and perhaps a shot at getting to the 40 percent threshold for avoiding a runoff, which McCrory is surely hoping for.

Comparing the February Civitas poll with the most-recent survey from Public Policy Polling, the top-line pattern is similar for the Republicans – a close race between McCrory and Smith, with Graham and Orr in a lower tier. The actual percentages are higher, probably due to differences in likely-voter modeling. (By the way, while the Elon University Poll is an interesting gauge of sentiments among the general public, it does not screen for voter registration, much less voter likelihood, and so is not a particularly useful measure of the political horserace, as the Elon folks readily acknowledge.) But on the Democratic side, PPP shows a far-bigger Perdue lead. I’ll be interested to see its March tracker.

So Moore and McCrory ought to be rooting for Obama – which won’t exactly make them unique.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.