If anybody tells you at this writing that they know how elections in North Carolina will turn out this year, you can rest assured they aren’t paying attention.
The word is uncertainty. The candidates, the political pros, and the pundits have few points of reference with which to discern the trends. Several weeks ago the state supreme court suspended primaries in preparation for a hearing next week on the constitutionality of the legislative districts. That delayed not only N.C. House and Senate races but everything else. Furthermore, Utah’s challenge to the new 13th Congressional seat for North Carolina is a strong one, so there’s at least a possibility that the congressional map will be redrawn along with the legislative ones.
Perhaps more important than all of these is the activities of Al Qaeda.
Yes, I mean the Islamofascist terrorists with whom American isat war. There are credible reports (see here) that Osama Bin Laden and others are still active in Eastern Afghanistan and that the Taliban/Al Qaeda thugs will attempt to reconstitute themselves as a traditional “Pathan” guerilla operation. This has also been the way in Afghanistan; first the set-piece military defeats, then reorganization as effective small groups of bandits and/or rebels.
There is also clear evidence that the U.S. and its allies are readying for a military campaign against Iraq, whether the Islamofascist dictators of the Gulf like it or not. A pivotal piece in The New Yorker, plus other reporting in the national press, caught the attention of many last month by establishing new links between the Al Qaeda terrorists and Saddam Hussein (see here).
It is also obvious that Iraqis are preparing for war, some fearful and others hopeful about the outcome (see here).
Finally, as the standoff between the Israelis and the Palestinians gets more and more perilous, I believe that the prospect of U.S military action in the Middle East becomes more rather than less likely. It is even conceivable that American troops may be drawn into a conflict in the West Bank.
To put it simply, I think it is becoming increasingly likely that we will have substantial troops in the Middle East by the summer, and may well be involved in a shooting war by the fall. This will, among other things, change the political calculus. With public attention directed overseas and to enhanced security measurers against terrorist attack at home, it will be more difficult to “change the subject” to issues such as Social Security, Medicare, or the environment. That’s bad news for Erskine Bowles or Dan Blue in their fall race against Elizabeth Dole.
On the other hand, it may be good news for some state and local Democrats who might be in big trouble if voters go to the polls in November thinking about budgets and taxes. If, instead, voters are transfixed by renewed war in Afghanistan or new military efforts in Iraq (or, God forbid, Israel itself) they might not be paying as much attention to the fiscal mismanagement of current officeholders in Raleigh and in local office. That may serve to protect incumbents from what would otherwise be the wrath of taxpayers.
My point is that all bets are off.