Between now and next November, if North Carolina Republicans are talking about anything other than President Biden’s long list of failures they are doing themselves no favors. While Biden’s failures are mounting, and since the policies aren’t sound, Republicans just need to stay out of their own way.
The October Civitas poll just released by the John Locke Foundation is devastating for North Carolina Democrats.
President Biden has sunk to a new low in North Carolina with only 38% of North Carolinians approving of his job performance. His disapproval rate is at 56%.
Looking at Biden’s handling of jobs and the economy, voters are not pleased. Fifty-seven percent disapprove of how he’s handling the issue, and 49% strongly disapprove (35% approve).
The nearly 7-point advantage for North Carolina Republicans in the legislative and congressional generic numbers is a modern-day record for the NCGOP.
Remember Republicans had a pretty good election in 2020 in North Carolina with Trump only defeating Biden by 1.5%.
Anything close to a 5–6-point swing to the Republicans in 2022, would guarantee a new GOP U.S. Senator and a super-majority of Republicans in the State House and Senate. Republicans would sweep statewide judicial races, flipping the State Supreme Court to the GOP. Democrats would lose a significant number of local races normally that are usually comfortable Democrat victories.
After showing a soft preference for Democrats earlier in the year, most unaffiliated voters now support the Republican candidate on both generic ballots. Voters in Raleigh and Durham still show a preference for the Democratic candidates (+8 on both ballots), but the generic Republicans lead both ballots in all other areas of the state.
Gov. Roy Cooper’s approval rating is at its lowest point in the Civitas poll since he became governor in 2016. While he is roughly even, the Civitas poll for the first time has Cooper underwater, or upside down, with his approval at 45.6% and his disapproval at 46.2%.
As support for Biden has cratered, Cooper’s approval on “jobs and the economy” has dropped to 40% approve and 45% disapprove.
It’s not that North Carolina Democrats won’t win with these numbers, it’s that they can’t win with these numbers. Individual campaigns and candidates become less and less relevant in an environment this bad.
The election next year, every election next year must be about Biden.
Thirty-year inflation high, reckless spending an ever-expanding welfare state. Erosion of America’s productivity and work ethic. All on Biden.
Biden is the Grinch that can’t ship Christmas.
If you are running for federal office, directly oppose Biden, this is the one and only message you should be using.
The GOP is attempting to pass historic tax relief through a long-delayed state budget. Whatever other issues are important in the state budget debate, Cooper and legislative Democrats are either going to help Republicans provide much-needed relief to North Carolina families struggling with Bidenflation or not. Voters will punish Democrats in North Carolina if they block the much-needed relief.
The politicization of our public schools continues to be a huge issue. Seventy-five percent of those polled now say classroom instruction in public schools is more political in the last 5 years. However, there are many divisive educational issues. Masks, critical race theory, and debate over the appropriate curriculum. GOP candidates need not solve all these issues. They should support parents’ right to speak out and engage in their child’s education, reminding voters it is Biden trying to shut them up by deploying the FBI against school board moms.
Republicans need to choose their words carefully. They must avoid becoming the story or distraction. North Carolina Democrats will continue to caricature Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, attempting to make him the GOP bogeyman. They are desperate to relitigate Trump and the 2020 election. Republicans can’t engage. If GOP voters want to improve election security in North Carolina, Republicans will have to win a legislative supermajority to enact change. That requires fighting the war in front of them, not battles of the past.
For example, this is the general election message for the eventual GOP Senate nominee:
“My name is Pat-Walker-Ted and I am running for U.S. Senate. My opponent supports Biden and if elected will assist him in further destruction of our economy and your way of life. If you send me to Washington, I along with other Republicans will impose a restraining order on President Biden and Congressional Democrats to stop them. “
Biden is choosing to support policies that are hurting North Carolina’s citizens. Polls reflect North Carolina citizens know this. At this point, North Carolina Democrats are in big trouble. Republicans must stay out of the way and start and end every sentence the same way…..Biden.