Shut out of formal power in the state capital for the first time in more than a century, North Carolina Democrats hope that 2014 will mark the beginning of a steady climb back to legislative majorities and the Governor’s Mansion by 2016.

The incline is steep. Republicans now have supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly: 77-43 in the House and 33-17 in the Senate. As for Gov. Pat McCrory, his first year proved to be quite rocky but the situation has improved in recent months. An average of the most-recent statewide polls puts him at 43 percent approval vs. 43 percent disapproval with the remaining respondents having mixed or neutral opinions about his job performance. While hardly stellar, these averages represent an improvement since late 2013. By comparison, President Barack Obama remains upside down in North Carolina with average approval the same as McCrory’s (43 percent) but average disapproval a bit higher (51 percent). Sen. Kay Hagan is in worse shape at 37 percent/47 percent.

If 2014 is to signify the Democrats’ Carolina Comeback, so to speak, the party will need to make substantial gains in legislative races. The most efficient place to start would be the state’s most populous county, Wake.

Both the NC Free Enterprise Foundation and the Civitas Institute have just released their ratings of legislative districts based on electoral data from the 2012 cycle. The two ratings differ somewhat in methodology but there is a lot of overlap in the results. If you lay the two lists side-by-side, one thing immediately leaps out at you: Wake County is a natural battleground in the contest for control of the General Assembly.

For example, two of the eight House districts Civitas considers to be swing seats are in Wake: District 41 (now held by Republican Tom Murry) and District 49 (now held by Republican Jim Fulghum). The only two true swing seats in the Senate by Civitas calculations are also in or include Wake County: District 15 (now held by Republican Neal Hunt) and District 18 (now held by Republican Chad Barefoot).

The NCFEF rankings produce Wake-heavy outcomes, as well. In the House, NCFEF includes District 41 and District 49 in a list of nine “competitive” seats across the state. One of its three competitive Senate seats is District 18.

If you expand the focus beyond true swing seats to include seats that lean Republican but can still be competitive for Democrats in a neutral or modestly favorable statewide electoral cycle, Civitas counts a total of 16 potential Democratic pickups in the House and five in the Senate. NCFEF counts 22 in the House and 11 in the Senate. Additional Wake seats that make the cut in both ranking systems include District 35 (Chris Malone), District 36 (Nelson Dollar), and District 40 (Marilyn Avila) in the House and District 17 (Tamara Barringer) in the Senate.

What all this means is that for Democrats, Wake County is probably their best potential investment of time and resources in 2014. A strong countywide turnout of the party base, aided by liberal-leaning media coverage and pro-Democratic interest groups in the capital city, could produce sizable gains in both chambers.

The Democrats’ best-remaining options are distributed across the state in smaller chunks: several seats in the Sandhills and on the Outer Banks, a couple of House seats to the north and east of the Triangle, a House seat in Mecklenburg, retiring Sen. Thom Goolsby’s open seat in New Hanover, and three House seats in the mountains.

It’s too early to judge whether Democrats will be able to capitalize on these opportunities. Candidate filing isn’t over and fundraising numbers won’t really tell the tale until later in the year.

But it’s not too early to know where the action is likely to be. Democrats have gotten their Wake-up call.

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Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.