This week’s “Daily Journal” guest columnist is Jenna Ashley Robinson, Research Intern for the John Locke Foundation.

Election season invariably fuels concerns about voter turnout. The nightly news, Sunday editorials, and concerned citizens lament that Americans don’t show up to the polls. A quick look at probability reveals why.

My vote doesn’t matter. That is, my vote doesn’t matter if I’m trying to influence the outcome of an election. Nevertheless, I went to the polls on Tuesday to cast a ballot in the primary, along with many other concerned North Carolina voters.

If Tuesday’s voters were interested only in influencing the outcome of an election, most will be sorely disappointed. A simple calculation could have helped them decide whether casting that ballot was worth their time. For any election, citizens can use this simple formula: if the chance of a tie is greater than the cost of voting divided by the potential benefit of voting, then they should take the time to cast a ballot. If not, they should stay home.

Keep in mind, Sunshine State notwithstanding, the chance of a tie is infinitesimally small, even in local elections. The chance of any one vote changing the outcome of an election is tiny. It’s smaller, in fact, than the chance of being hit by lightning or being bitten by a shark. In large elections, the odds of affecting the outcome are worse than those for winning the new N.C. lottery. So the chance that the voter-payoff calculation will yield a positive response is almost nil. The question should not be “Why don’t Americans vote?” but “Why do we bother?”

If it’s not instrumentally valuable to vote, why do people do it? When polled, voters reply that they vote in order to express their preference for their preferred candidate, but also to increase his or her chances of winning. However, there are other intangible benefits to voting. These are private benefits that cannot be measured by an individual’s impact on the election outcome. In past centuries, these benefits included cash incentives, patronage, and, in some cases, livestock. Party machines made certain that voting was worthwhile for the party loyalists.

Discounting the “I Voted” sticker, today’s voters go to the polls for more intangible benefits. Some go because they believe it’s their civic duty to vote for the leaders of their country. Others believe high voter turnout is imperative to genuine democracy. Still others show up on election day because they believe that waiting in a long line and filling in their bubble sheet entitles them to complain the other 364 days a year if things don’t go their way.

Others really do vote to get the sticker. It’s a badge of honor. Proof that its wearer entered a precinct and endured the lines, hassle, and occasional confusion that accompany Election Day. But the sticker is more than just a badge; it’s social capital. Citizens with an “I Voted” sticker can remind their peers of their civic duty, and in so doing, hopefully encourage more like-minded voters to hit the polls. Next to civic duty, this social value of voting might be the most important reason that citizens cast ballots each election season.

The psychological and social benefits I received assure me that my choice to vote was a rational one. Conversely, it’s still perfectly rational for some voters to stay home on Election Day despite private benefits they might receive. So it’s no surprise that voter turnout, even in presidential elections, rarely passes the 50 percent mark.

Given the incentives to vote, or lack thereof, American voter turnout doesn’t seem to be in the dire straits some often suggest. In fact, it’s heartening to know that Americans are rational creatures, carefully weighing their options before turning up at their assigned precincts. In today’s world of incumbency advantage, gerrymandering, and red tape, it might just be the smartest option.