RALEIGH – The latest issue of North Carolina DataNet is out, and it is primarily devoted to the 2000 governor’s race between Mike Easley and Richard Vinroot.
The newsletter is published by the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at UNC-Chapel Hill, is edited by political scientist Thad Beyle, and is available here.
One of the most interesting insights was contained in the cover story by Beyle and former News & Observer columnist Ferrel Guillory. Newspapers have already reported that Easley was able to outraise and outspend Vinroot during the 2000 campaign, $11 million to $8.2 million. But Beyle and Guillory looked at the expenditure reports and noted that Easley spent a higher percentage of his money on radio and TV spots than Vinroot did, with the effect that “North Carolina voters saw and heard $3.3 million more of Easley’s message than Vinroot’s.”
Further, Vinroot campaign consultant Carter Wrenn told the writers that a much-publicized $1 million influx of money fromthe national GOP came so late in the cycle that the Vinroot folks were unable to put it to effective use in additional ads.
In a state of 8 million people, the reality is that paid advertising is the main vehicle for communicating candidate messages. Indeed, Easley spent only $85,000, and Vinroot a risible $25,000, on travel. In my opinion, this is taking things to extremes – surely the free media earned by twice as many campaign stops would have been worth an extra $25,000 to Vinroot, who actually looked good and performed well in television appearances (and who could have made fundraising calls on the way).
Still, those who pine for the days when candidates spent weeks or months journeying the state need to get with the times. As head of an organization that works hard to hold just a few dozen events around the state each year, I can tell you that getting people out for a luncheon or a dinner is a difficult task any more. Average folks would rather stay home and consume media. That’s why campaigns concentrate on media messages they control rather than on campaign events with more unpredictable audience and spin.
Easley’s $3.3 million advantage helped push him over the top in a race that was, by North Carolina standards, very competitive. His six-point win was the smallest since Jim Holshouser’s stunning win in 1972. Next time around, look for the nominees of each major party – which may be Easley and Vinroot, again, though nothing is assured in either case – to approach the race with similar strategies.