I wrote yesterday that just as the past quarter-century saw Republicans move into a competitive position in the North Carolina General Assembly, the party has also made steady gains at the level of county government, an often-overlooked but significant political battleground in our state.
After the 2000 elections, the split in county commissioners statewide was about 60 percent Democrat and 40 percent Republican. Similarly, the Democrats controlled 61 of the 100 counties and Republicans 39. Now, as we look toward Tuesday’s elections, there are a number of these counties in play. Republicans have a chance to capture or recapture several, with Democrats mostly playing defense but also threatening in a couple of communities.
Here are some of the more interesting races to watch:
• Mecklenburg. In this Republican-leaning county, the GOP has been unable to match its success in statewide or congressional races with dominance in local government. In 1996, the party lost control of the county commission and has yet to reclaim it. But in 2002, the GOP has a chance to gain a slim majority.
The county has six district seats and three at-large seats. All but one of the districts seats are basically uncompetitive. Republican Jim Puckett, a former school board member, is the only district commissioner to face a challenger, but will likely prevail. The action, then, is in the three at-large races. Two are held by incumbents: Democrat and commission chairman Park Helms and Republican Tom Cox. A district commissioner, Democrat Darrell Williams, is also running, as are newcomer Republicans Joy Isenhour and Dan Ramirez and Democrat Angeles Ortega. A Libertarian, Lewis Guignard, could also play a key role in siphoning support away from the GOP candidates – particularly Cox, whom some Republicans believe is insufficiently conservative on fiscal issues (he voted for a recent sales-tax increase and supports a $224 million school bond that other Republicans oppose).
Several factors are at play. A strong black turnout could help the liberal Helms retain power and put Williams, an African-American, into office. The growing Hispanic vote might gravitate towards both the Democrat Ortega and the Republican Ramirez, which would on balance hurt Helms and Williams. Isenhour and Ramirez have done little to energize rank-and-file Republicans, some of whom are already angry with Cox. Democrats will probably keep control of the Mecklenburg County Commission unless other races, such as a competitive State Senate race in a heavily Republican area and Elizabeth Dole’s U.S. Senate candidacy, boost GOP turnout above historical norms.
• Guilford. The county commission here has gone back and forth between the two parties. Right now, it has a 6-to-5 Democratic majority, though Republicans helped make Democrat Mike Barber the chairman. The key race here is in District 6, where Democrat Jeff Thigpen faces a spirited challenge from young Republican Jonathan Wagstaff. Although the district was redrawn last year to favor Democrats, Wagstaff is making the race competitive by outspending Thigpen and emphasizing hot-button issues such as tax increases and incentive programs for big business (he’s against him, Thigpen in favor).
Again, this race is unlikely to drive turnout, so Wagstaff’s — and the Guilford GOP’s – chances next week will depend largely on how the U.S. Senate race will affect who shows up.
• Wake. The 5-2 Democratic majority in Wake County isn’t as slender as in Mecklenburg and Guilford. But it is in some peril. The commissioners here run in districts but are actually elected countywide. That makes the partisan control more volatile. Four seats are up for grabs. All have incumbents: three Democrats (Linda Coleman, Michael Weeks, and Betty Mangum) and one Republican (Herb Council).
Coleman faces Joe Bryan, the Republican mayor of Knightdale. He is the most experienced of the challengers, and perhaps most likely to prevail. Weeks has a Republican challenger in Phil Jeffreys, while Mangum is running against Tony Gurley. All of three of the Republicans are running fairly aggressive campaigns, including radio ads, mailers, phone calls, and signs. The Democratic candidates are relying on the power of incumbency and an expected strong turnout by black voters in the county (longtime Sheriff John Baker, a powerbroker in the African-American community, is being strongly challenged for reelection). The presence of Libertarian candidates in several races may also play a role if the numbers are close. The other seat, held by the Republican Herb Council, attracted the candidacy of Democrat Aura Camacho Maas. She is using television ads and other means to attempt to build a center-left coalition and energize the county’s growing Hispanic population. She might be helped by some Republican disaffection with Council – who, like Mecklenburg’s Cox, hasn’t been a reliable vote on taxes.
• Cleveland. Traditionally a Democrat bastion in the GOP-leaning mountains, Cleveland County – home to the “Shelby Dynasty” of Democratic governors and leaders during the mid-1900s – has been edging towards parity. You can see the trend on the county commission. In 1998, Republicans took the majority on the five-person commission. In 2000, the commission flipped back to the Democrats by one vote. In 2002 there are two seats in play. The current Democratic chairman, Willie McIntosh, and Democratic challenger Kenneth Ledford face Republican challenger John McBrayer and Republican incumbent Jerry Self. Fiscal issues and the impact of textile contractor on the county economy are dominating the campaign.
• Burke. Also a county that leaned Democratic in the past when its neighbors leaned Republican, Burke had a GOP majority after the 1994 and 1996 elections and then flipped back to the Democrats in 1998. Their 3-2 majority is threatened this year, with taxes driving the debate. Republicans Wayne Abele and Jane Cozort are calling for property tax cuts. Democrats Bruce Hawkins and Ruth Ann Suttle say that would be irresponsible and harm public services.
• Lee. Republicans gained a 4-3 majority on this board in the past election cycle. Now it’s being strongly challenged. One Republican seat is open because vice-chairman John Sauls is running for the N.C. House. The nominees for the seat are Republican Amy Stevens, a town commissioner from Broadway, and Democrat Frances Andrews, who took the place of her late husband Don Andrews. The other is held by chairman Chad Adams, who is being challenged by Democrat Daryl Davis and Libertarian James Pitts.
• Pender. This coastal county went Republican in 1994, Democrat in 1996 and 1998, and Republican again in 2000. It also features a swing House seat. In the commissioner race, taxes are again a dividing line. Democrats Eugene Meadows and Gerald Tyler say they would raise taxes to fund needed services in this fast-growing county. Republicans Bob Berg and David Williams are against property tax increases, though they are open to impact fees on new developments. There is a third commission seat up, but I don’t have any information on the match-up.
• Watauga. Another key battleground, Watauga had a Republican commission until 1998, when Democrats took a narrow lead. The latter preserved it in 2000. Now two Democratic incumbents, Sue Sweeting and Pat Wilkie, are trying to hold off Republican challengers David Blust and Allen Trivette. Another seat, an open one, pits Democrat Keith Honeycutt against Dave Robertson. Hate to sound like a broken record, but fiscal issues are important here. Democrats take credit for a relatively low property tax rate and defend their recent sales-tax hike as needed to preserve school funding. Republicans call for tax and spending restraint and complain about excessive regulations on land use and small businesses.
• Surry. Republicans held this county until Democrats swept all three commissioner seats in 1998. Now, four years later, two of these three Democrats – businessman Fred O’Neal and dentist Jim Harrell – are running for reelection against Republicans Tony Tilley, a cattle farmer, and Terry Coe, a used-care salesman (really). A third seat is open, with Democrat J.D. Bartley, a former principal and interim city manager for Mt. Airy against Republican Craig Hunter, a planning board member who works in commercial real estate. The GOP needs to win only one of these races to take back the county board.
Other county commissions where political shifts are possible include Craven, Macon, and McDowell.
Tomorrow: A last look at pivotal contests for control of the N.C. General Assembly.