In the last week leading up to the November 5 elections, I’m going to profile some of the key political contests I think you should be watching. As has become the norm in North Carolina, there are many competitive races and political jurisdictions up for grabs this year. Because of the level of attention that major statewide races such as this year’s Bowles-Dole Senate race attracts, it can be easy to miss lower-level campaigns that have important implications for voters across North Carolina.
Today’s column is about such a political afterthought: the battle for control of county governments in North Carolina.
The knowledge level about these races may be low, but the stakes are not. Even without home rule, North Carolina counties still make key decisions about property taxes, education and social services funding, economic development, growth management and property rights, election procedures, and many other important issues. Some of the state’s most contentious controversies of recent years – from school bond votes and “Smart Growth” to political scandals and government funding for sports and cultural attractions – have played out in county governments with close partisan divides and colorful personalities.
Most county governments weren’t closely divided until recently. After nearly a century of Democratic dominance in most of the state, with only isolated pockets of GOP strength in Piedmont and mountain counties like Randolph and Catawba, Republicans began to make steady gains in county commissioner races in the early 1970s, helped along by Richard Nixon’s strong showing in the state and wins by Jim Holshouser and Jesse Helms in the governor and Senate races, respectively. Gains continued during the 1980s, particularly in places already trending Republican such as Mecklenburg County and the I-85 corridor up to Greensboro and over to Alamance.
By the early 1990s, Democratic commissioners still formed the majority in nearly three-quarters of North Carolina’s 100 county boards. But the GOP was poised to challenge this in the coming decade, particularly in areas where retirees were moving to North Carolina from the Northeast or Midwest and bringing their Republican pedigrees with them. These included coastal communities such as Onslow, Carteret, and Craven as well as Democratic-controlled mountain counties like Cleveland and Burke. At the same time, urban counties such as Wake and Guilford were becoming at least moderately competitive, and the burgeoning growth was spilling over into previously rural places like Johnston and Cabarrus, turning them into Republican-leaning suburbs.
The pivotal election, of course, was in 1994. According to numbers supplied by the N.C. Association of County Commissioners, Democrats controlled 73 commissions in 1992. After huge GOP gains in 1994, the Democrats were left with only 58. Because some of the Republican candidates in these races were marginal at best – nominated by their parties in situations where the prospects for success in the general election hadn’t appeared good – the GOP gave up some of their 1994 gains four years later in 1998, falling to 37 counties with Republican majorities vs. 62 Democratic counties (little Tyrrell had no partisan majority at the time, but subsequently reverted to its traditional Democratic one).
The 2000 election featured a small Republican gain of 10 county commission seats statewide (out of 566). Five Democratic commissions tipped over to the Republicans by one-seat margins – Harnett, Lee, Onslow, Pender, and Rockingham. Four other counties went Democrat: Cleveland, Macon, Rutherford, and Tyrrell. The net result left Democrats with majorities in 61 counties and Republicans with 39 counties, similar toDemocrats’ edge in overall commissioner seats of 60 percent to 40 percent.
That’s the situation as we head into the 2002 cycle. About a quarter of the counties have one party or the other in control by a single seat. Tomorrow, I’ll discuss some of the most competitive county commission races – including potential Republican takeovers of the three largest counties in the state.
Hood ([email protected]) is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.