RALEIGH – Candidate filing for state and local offices in North Carolina ended Friday, signaling the official beginning of the political season. I guess the theme that jumps out is: the North Carolina Republican Party doesn’t have a full team out on the field.
Despite portents that the upcoming elections might well offer the GOP a chance to repeat its stunning 1994 sweep — big tax increases by the Democratic legislature and many Democrat-controlled local governments, for example, and the popularity of President George W. Bush — the party did not recruit candidates for a number of races that might, on a good day, be competitive.
Here are some links to illustrate what I mean:
Statewide – Click here.
Triangle – Click here and here.
Charlotte – Click here.
Greensboro – Click here.
Sandhills Area – Click here.
Naturally, many Republicans (and Democrats, if the truth be told) think that the N.C. Supreme Court will throw out the legislative districts drawn by the Democratic majority last year. But this critical proceeding is scheduled for early April, with a decision expected just weeks before the May primary. Anything could happen. Do Republicans really want to take the chance that they won’t get a “do-over” on the districts? Apparently, since they neglected to challenge several Democratic legislative incumbents. Even where GOP candidates did file, some aren’t exactly, shall we say, top-flight.
I think that if this was a conscious decision, it was nothing short of defeatism. Redistricting isn’t destiny. After all, the Republicans made steady gains in the 1980s and 1990s with districts drawn by their adversaries. You never really know what’s going to happen in an election until the people vote. And there are many unknowns out there, even potential shifts in partisan allegiance that past electoral outcomes can’t predict.
Moreover, the GOP didn’t just sit out legislative races. They failed to challenge Democrats in some local races, as well. There is no prospect of these districts being redrawn. I guess there are only two explanations for this. First, Republicans tried desperately to recruit good candidates for these offices, but could not convince party members that the odds were good enough, the offices were important enough, and the stakes were high enough.
Or second, the Republicans are poorly organized and therefore no such recruitment attempt was made. Either explanation is bad news.
I guarantee there were Democrats across North Carolina this weekend toasting their surprising good fortune. And Republicans were, collectively, holding their breath. The Supreme Court beckons.