President George W. Bush’s visit yesterday to Charlotte, while part of a national strategy to engineer a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate, also fits with the North Carolina Republican Party’s effort to excite its voter base in preparation for the pivotal Nov. 5 elections.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Because of the state’s economic woes and the past two years of big budget deficits and tax increases, North Carolina Republicans believe they have the issues to win control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time in more than a century. A related development is the party’s better-than-usual round of candidate recruitment, during which they attracted sitting officeholders, business leaders, and other formidable talent.
GOP leaders also perceive this year’s elections for N.C. Supreme Court and N.C. Court of Appeals to be critically important because legislation passed this year will strip the party labels off the judicial candidates starting in 2004. Democrats intended the change to remove the modest advantage that partisan elections have conferred on Republican judicial candidates in recent years. Assuming that both sides are reading the situation correctly, GOP chances to maintain their majority on the Supreme Court and get to parity or higher on the appeals court will dim after the 2002 cycle.
Finally, there are a surprising number of county commissions, including those in North Carolina’s three most populous counties, that could switch partisan control this year (more about this next week). All the more reason for both parties to focus on turning out their core constituencies in order to tip the balance in races all the way down the ballot.
As you can see in the press coverage of Bush’s Charlotte stop (see: http://www.herald-sun.com/state/6-280536.html) the main theme of the event was boosting the campaigns of Elizabeth Dole for the U.S. Senate and Robin Hayes for the 8th Congressional District. But many other candidates were in attendance at the event, which drew thousands of Republican activists. Earlier in the week, the “Eliza-Bus” tour in Eastern North Carolina was similarly designed to get the troops engaged and enthusiastic. Judging by the 2,000 people who turned out in Smithfield for a joint appearance by Dole and U.S. Sen. Jesse Helms, the strategy may be working.
All the experts will tell you that modern political campaigns are all about television ads. They are overstating the case. Particularly in off-year elections, we have seen the rise of phone banks and automated dialers, sophisticated databases for last-minute mailings, and get-out-the-vote teams, among other devices. In elections where swing voters simply don’t show up at all, the party that has the best ground game is increasingly going to win.
Republicans saw their momentum collapse in both the 1998 and 2000 election cycles precisely because they were less effective on the ground than Democrats were. The latter use existing organizations, such as teacher unions and “civil rights” organizations, to carry out their ground game. The Republicans have to invent one virtually from scratch each election season.
This year, the GOP is making an all-out effort to compete effectively not just in the air but on the ground. Building enthusiasm is a critical element, which is why President Bush’s Charlotte visit was about more than just raising a few dollars. It was about raising a lot of pulses.