RALEIGH – Few political junkies and journalist got much sleep on primary night. Computer glitches and a tight Republican primary for governor helped to delay definitive results until the wee hours.
And there was little rest for the weary. Within hours of the news of an August 17 runoff, the gubernatorial battle resumed with Richard Vinroot challenging Patrick Ballantine’s record on spending and the economy. “I think it’s a clear choice between a moderate with a big-spending record and someone who wants to reduce bureaucracy and government waste,” Vinroot said at a Charlotte news conference. “I think I’m the clear choice.”
Ballantine chose not to respond yet to Vinroot — who was referring to Ballantine’s past votes for some big-spending budgets and corporate-subsidy bills – and appeared to be readying a Thursday press conference at which Republicans not making the runoff may endorse him.
After taking a closer look at the county totals, I think caution is in order in predicting the August 17 balloting. Both candidates have reasons for optimism. For example, I examined the votes in 20 counties with at least 5,000 votes on July 20. These counties accounted for about two-thirds of all votes cast, and include big urban counties plus traditionally Republican places such as Catawba, Randolph, Henderson, Iredell, Moore, and Union.
As expected, Vinroot’s support was strongest in the Charlotte area and points north and west, Ballantine ran well in the east, and Cobey won the Triangle and some counties in central and western NC. Also as expected, turnout within the 5th and 10th congressional districts was, in general, higher than the statewide average because of competitive House primaries. Vinroot won this region, but not as handily as he did in previous cycles. Moreover, the Republican turnout in his home county of Mecklenburg was surprisingly low while the turnout in Wake was surprisingly high – perhaps explained by the presence of hot GOP legislative races in the latter but not the former. The two counties now have almost the same number of registered Republicans, but there were about 37,000 gubernatorial votes in Wake vs. only 25,000 in Mecklenburg. This differential alone probably cost Vinroot about 6,000 votes, or two to three percentage points.
Ballantine, meanwhile, ran a respectable 24 percent to 29 percent in lots of Piedmont and western counties he lost, and overwhelmingly won his New Hanover base (where turnout was higher than average). Bill Cobey’s support was patchier – strong in some places, such as the Triangle and Asheville areas, while sparse in other key Republican areas.
Thus Ballantine can claim to have a statewide base of support and a clear sense of momentum built up over the past three weeks. And some Cobey supporters may resent Vinroot’s targeting of their man during the primary and support Ballantine.
However, remember that the August electorate could be different from July’s. Ballantine polled better than Vinroot in the Triangle and could inherit some of Cobey’s support there, but Triangle voters no longer have a compelling reason to show up. Both the 5th and 10th congressional districts featured runoffs that will probably elect Republican representatives for years to come. I know of no other major GOP runoffs. Moreover, Ballantine must craft an effective response to keep Vinroot from getting to his right on fiscal policy, as the latter appears to have done to Cobey in the latter stages of the first primary.
In short, there is still no clear nominee to take on Gov. Mike Easley. Stay tuned.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.