The conventional wisdom right after the November elections was that Gov. Mike Easley’s notion of a state-run lottery for North Carolina was one of the biggest losers.

There were many arguments in favor of this conclusion. First off, Republicans took control of the N.C. House. If they are able to elect a speaker from among their ranks, it is likely that a lottery bill won’t get far in the chamber. It really doesn’t matter which Republican ultimately gets the nod. If, however, the GOP remains too divided and Speaker Jim Black is able to pick off a few dissidents, the lottery is back in play.

Second, looking at individual House and Senate races, it appears that the state lottery has lost whatever ground it may have gained in recent years. Already a losing issue in the House, it has likely picked up a handful of additional opponents. For example, down east in House 3, lottery “yes” vote Alice Underhill was defeated by lottery “no” vote Michael Gorman. Ditto in Republican Bonner Stiller’s win over David Redwine, Louis Pate’s win over Phil Baddour, and John Sauls’ win over Leslie Cox. The other side may have picked up a few seats, too, such as Bruce Goforth’s defeat of Mark Crawford in Asheville and Margaret Dickson’s defeat of Mia Morris in Fayetteville. On balance, though, it looks like the lottery is further away from 61 votes than before. Furthermore, many “yes” votes from new members could well evolve over time into “no” votes as they learn more about the issue. It’s happened many times before.

Even in the Senate, where it was often assumed that a state lottery could command a majority, the odds are no longer very good. Most of the new Republican members are already on record as anti-lottery. And lottery opponents have always counted a handful of Senate Democrats who, if push came to shove, would like the lottery either to die or at least not to come up on their side of the Legislative Building.

But all is not yet lost in Easley’s Quest for the Holy Sale. Remember that the state faces another big budget deficit in FY 2003-04, probably $1.5 billion or so when all is said and done. Easley and Senate Democrats will try to cover a big chunk of that with yet another tax hike – such as reimposing the half-penny sales tax hike that is supposed to go away July 1. For the rest of the gap, they would like to at least console themselves that short-run budget cuts could be restored after the passage of a state lottery in 2004.

I’m not saying that it will be easy for them to accomplish this end. I don’t really see how they can. I don’t think, however, that Easley and his legislative allies are just going to give up. We haven’t heard the last of the lottery in North Carolina. And don’t forget, there will soon be a new lottery in Tennessee…