RALEIGH – It’s about politics.

Apply this simple rule and you’ll almost always clarify what might appear to be complex events. Whatever politicians and political activists say they are up to – regarding the economy, education, or any other issue – you can be sure the underlying intentions are political. Because virtually every political actor believes his cause is just and his team deserves to rule, there’s no separating his policy goals and his political hopes.

As the shape of the 2010 playing field becomes clearer, it will also become still clearer how often this rule applies. For example, it can help explain the otherwise-convoluted attempts by the NAACP to demonize the tea party movement nationwide and to demonize the Wake County school board closer to home.

Consider this:

• Virtually everyone except Speaker Nancy Pelosi admits that there is a significant risk of her losing control of the U.S. House to a Republican sweep of 40+ seats in the fall.

• An increasing number of analysts recognize that the GOP has a chance of capturing the 10 seats it needs to run the U.S. Senate, though most would still (properly) consider the feat improbable.

• Republicans are very likely to win a majority, and quite possibly a strong majority, of the nation’s governorships in November. North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue was fortunate to be on the ballot in 2008, when an Obama tide lifted all Democratic boats, and is fortunate not to be on the ballot this year, when she would surely lose.

• As Governing magazine has just noted, Republicans have a good shot of winning as many as 21 state-legislative chambers from the Democrats – including both houses of the North Carolina General Assembly – while having to defend only four GOP-led chambers from Democratic capture. While the implications for the 2011 redistricting cycle have already been widely recognized, Republican takeovers of state governments could also result in dramatic changes in fiscal policy, education, transportation, and federal relations between Washington and the states.

Now, to get back to the NAACP’s recent rhetorical excesses, you can believe what its leaders claim about conservative activists – that they keep their white hoods hidden in secret caches underneath their country-club greens – or you can interpret the actions in political terms.

Most NAACP leaders are Democratic partisans who believe the interests of their party and their communities are precisely aligned. They further recognize that historic Democratic gains in 2006 and 2008 were made possible in part by historic increases in voter turnout among African-Americans, and to a lesser extent among young liberals of all backgrounds.

Their nightmare scenario is that 2010 turnout among these voting groups will fall not just back to historical norms but below them. They remember that in 1994, Republicans in North Carolina and elsewhere found themselves competitive in districts no one could have predicted in part because of a significant turnout differential.

While minority voters and young people still support President Obama and other Democrats, many are frustrated with what they see as ineffective governance. They don’t seem as likely to come to the polls as conservative critics of the administration do. Something similar is going in within North Carolina – supporters of Perdue and the Democratic legislature appearing less enthusiastic about the election than critics are.

So the NAACP and allied groups are trying to manufacture racial controversies in an attempt to change these political dynamics. Nationally, they are trying to turn the tea party movement, a grassroots reaction to excessive government spending and debt, into some kind of Bull Connor fan club.

And in North Carolina, they are trying to turn Wake County’s student-assignment policies into a racial cause célèbre – despite the fact that the school board is simply bringing Wake’s failed policies into line with what most school districts in North Carolina have already been doing for years without provoking the protests and publicity stunts we’re now seeing in Raleigh.

What’s the difference? In the past, they didn’t think they needed to seek extreme measures to boost voter turnout. This year, they do.

It’s that simple.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.