This week’s Daily Journal guest columnist is Chad Adams, Vice President for Development at the John Locke Foundation and Director of the Center for Local Innovation.
There is no doubt that this election year will be one of the most interesting in our lifetimes. For the first time in decades, our primary actually matters at the national level. Attention focused on the Democratic presidential primary will have repercussions all the way down to the local level.
Obama/Clinton presidential ads will dominate the airwaves, while the governor’s race will be on the second tier. People in the state, who would normally be paying a great deal of attention to the gubernatorial primaries, won’t this year.
That factor will influence both parties. On the Republican side, the Democratic presidential primary might lead to the loss of potential independent voters. The theory goes something like this:
With all due respect to former N.C. Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr and Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham, state Sen. Fred Smith leads in conservative Republican circles, and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory tends to lead when one adds in the independent vote. Those independent voters might well break heavily for the Democratic primary. So, even if McCrory comes in close enough to force a runoff with Smith, those independents who voted in the Democratic primary, can’t vote in the runoff election.
McCrory didn’t survive the complex world of Charlotte politics by not understanding the electorate. And there are many in GOP circles who feel McCrory stands the best odds of taking on the Democratic nominee in the fall. He’s likeable and has across-the-aisle appeal. Smith has canvassed the state spreading his message (and barbeque) in almost every county. It will be fun for pundits to watch, as conventional wisdom will probably not apply.
As we look to the county level, we must take into account several factors. We will have historically high turnout among African-American voters. According to Democratic political consultant Brad Crone, probably in the 40 percent range. Add independents, and this becomes a rather substantial event. It will have an impact on primaries for the North Carolina Senate and House and county commissioner races.
At the local level, the real question will be whether the African-American vote pushes those races (including school boards) to the left, or will the independents push to the right? It’s even possible that they push neither way, but simply push turnout up.
But there is more at stake. More than 20 counties will have sales or land-transfer tax initiatives on the ballot. Land-transfer tax referendums suffered miserable defeats in November in every county that held them. Will historically high turnout help or hurt new tax votes?
The good news overall is that people are tuning in to the presidential race. The sad news is that they’re not tuning in to the political scandals and corruption rocking our state. They’re not focused on the actual issues facing us like education, taxation, and regulation.
Here’s the truth. Our state spending is out of control. Regulations are hurting businesses more and more every day. The policies of the past eight years have not created a better educational system. And our roads and infrastructure have deteriorated, as traffic congestion has gotten worse. These are real, tangible issues that should matter to people who pay the bills. Paying attention is wonderful, but I’m hopeful that we care more about what’s really affecting us day to day rather than the latest comment that any presidential candidate has to say about his or her rival.