RALEIGH – So it has really come down to this: Democratic leaders and consultants believe that their only chance to keep control of the General Assembly in this fall’s elections is to place a “nonbinding” lottery referendum on the November ballot.
If true, this would hardly constitute leadership. It would be little more than a cynical manipulation of the public. The theory party leaders are advancing is that lotteries are particularly popular among low-income and black voters, the very folks that Democrats think they need to turn out big time to offset the expected surge of fiscally conservative voters angry about recent tax increase and budgetary mismanagement.
Remember when lottery supporters said that the idea had broad appeal, and that it wouldn’t take advantage of minorities to fund government? It was oh so long ago – like last Tuesday. Now Democrats are trying to make the lottery a partisan issue by suggesting that minorities and the poor do, in fact, have a special attraction to the lottery, and will thus come out in droves to vote for it. A shameful performance all around.
And also a misguided one. I don’t buy their argument. I doubt seriously that the secret to Democratic turnout in off-year elections is to dangle fool’s gold in front of minority voters. The original idea behind using the lottery to rejuvenate Democratic fortunes in the South had nothing to do with this notion, or with legislative races at all. It was suggested that gubernatorial candidates could use the lottery issue to propose new education spending while holding the line on taxes. It allowed Democrats running statewide to appeal to swing voters without getting the usual “tax-hike” reputation.
This argument, even if true at the gubernatorial level, makes little sense in legislative races, or this year in North Carolina. The big issue this year isn’t the expansion of new education programs. It is the maintenance of existing programs. And legislative leaders aren’t offering a state lottery as an alternative to tax increases. Taxpayers get shafted whether we get a lottery or not.
What will certainly happen if a lottery referendum is on North Carolina’s ballot is that religious conservatives, who have been losing interest in state-level politics in recent years, will turn out in large numbers to vote down the moral scourge of gambling. You can be sure that such an eventuality will not help Democrats win swing seats in the N.C. House and Senate.
To sum up: the Democrats’ argument that a lottery will be their own salvation in the coming elections is factually wrong and morally offensive. So, will it prevail, anyway?