RALEIGH – It’s just a little over six weeks until the general election in North Carolina. Do you know where your politicians are?
With the primary and the general separated by only a few weeks this year, due to redistricting, instead of the usual several months, state politicians and voters are presented with a unique situation. Now that the parties’ standard-bearers are chosen, there isn’t a lot of time for them to carry their flags. Polling, ad campaigns, mailers, and fundraisers are already underway.
Republicans are wondering whether the issues they think will help them in federal and state elections – the war on terror and (probably) Iraq, fiscal malfeasance in Raleigh, thegeneral incompetence of state leaders, etc. – will still invoke strong voter response by November. Democrats are seeking to change the subject – to the soft economy, to the state lottery, to protecting Social Security (from sensible and needed market-based reform, I should add) – and enjoy early fundraising and name-recognition advantages in virtually every race except the U.S. Senate contest, where I think Erskine Bowles is too far behind to catch up.
In this context, it’s worth restating some recent polling results to get a sense not how the races will necessarily turn out in six weeks but instead where they are on the onset of the abbreviated general election campaign. Elizabeth Dole leads Bowles by a 49-35 margin in a Mason Dixon poll (see here: http://www.journalnow.com/wsj/news/elections/MGBWKSW776D.html), and her negatives remain in the teens – very low for such a well-known person.
Gov. Mike Easley isn’t on the ballot, but his policies on the lottery and the withholding of local tax revenues might as well be. My impression is that they are the talk of legislative and local races, to the extent there are any overarching themes in this disparate match-ups. An Elon University poll (see here: http://www.news-record.com/news/local/elonpoll21rd.htm) has his approval ratings down to around 40 percent, similar to another recent poll. If the governor makes good on his threat to campaign against lawmakers who voted against the lottery, his relative unpopularity may prove as much of a curse as a blessing for the candidates he hopes to help. Most North Carolinians probably still don’t have a really strong feeling about Easley one way or the other, but I’m betting that those most familiar with him and likely to react to his presence in a campaign aren’t his biggest fans.
On the other side of the aisle, the Republicans have a leader who is very popular in this state (69 percent approval of President Bush in the Mason-Dixon survey).
Speaking of the lottery, it still enjoys public approval ranging from the high 50s (Mason-Dixon) to the middle 60s (Elon, see here: http://www.elon.edu/e-net/general.asp?id=8033). I suspect that the number would come down closer to 50-50 if there were a robust public debate, say in connection with a referendum. On any ballot other than a general-election ballot, I would predict a closely fought referendum, tilting towards a loss (anti-lottery voters are more motivated to show up and to vote on the issue alone). Fortunately, we won’t have to find out for a while given the failure of a nonbinding referendum last week in the N.C. House. But Easley and legislative Democrats won’t let us forget about the issue.
I haven’t seen much in the way of local or legislative polls, but I am told that much of the public is not significantly engaged on the relevant issues, and that the international situation is sapping a surprising amount of energy out of other races. My own view is that this will fade; I think that the economy, not the war, will be the overriding concern for most voters. Intervening events could change that outlook in the coming days and weeks.