Despite the dateline on this column, I’m not really there.
I know, I know, some of you would argue that I’ve never really been all there. What I mean is that when you read this, I’ll be in London at a weeklong meeting of the Mount Pelerin Society, a worldwide assembly of the greatest leaders and minds in the free-market policy community (plus a few spectators like me). Founded more than half a century ago by legendary figures like F.A. Hayek and Milton Friedman, the society is essentially the original version of the vast right-wing conspiracy — except that at the time it was way less than vast and has always included towards the libertarian, rather than the conservative/traditionalist, tradition.
Anyway, that’s the preamble. The point is that I’m not going to write Daily Journal pieces from London. Everyone needs a break now and then. Instead, this space will feature some of my updated analysis of the most competitive races in the North Carolina House this year (I’m covering the N.C. Senate races in greater detail in my weekly syndicated column, so seek out your local newspaper for it).
Today, I’d like to start down east, where there are four House races that promise to be very competitive. In District 3, including Craven and Pamlico counties, Democratic incumbent Alice Graham Underhill (daughter of the Sodfather) faces Republican nominee Michael Gorman, the mayor of the Craven County town of Trent Woods and a science teacher at a local charter school. Underhill is running (in what I rate as a moderately Republican seat by the numbers) as a traditional Democrat in some ways, emphasizing education and environmental protection, but she is also talking a lot about reining in government spending. Of the state’s budget deficit, she has said that “This is an opportunity to take a good hard look at the whole structure of state government. We need to do some reinvention, keeping programs in place that will carry the state forward. We have to get rid of wasteful and duplicative programs.”
Gorman, for his part, is up-front as a fiscal conservative and opponent of the legislature’s recent tax increases – about $700 million in 2001 and nearly $400 million in 2002, both of which Underhill supported. He talks of a “bottom-up” review of state government programs, and is attempting to paint Underhill as too beholden to legislative powerbrokers in Raleigh: “I want to represent the people of this district and stop the knee-jerk agreement with the leadership, which has brought us unbalanced budgets, unconstitutional redistricting and the highest taxes in the south.” Gorman has also complained about a “push poll,” apparently run by a Democratic consulting firm, that is spreading negative rumors about him.
Up in District 9, in and around Greenville, incumbent Democrat Marion McLawhorn faces Republican Judy Eagle. In this swing district, the two-termer McLawhorn is a proven fundraiser and a fairly reliable vote for the Democratic caucus. For example, she apparently agonized for a long while about the proposed state lottery but ultimately decided to vote for a nonbinding resolution on the issue (it didn’t pass). Look for McLawhorn to emphasize how the new budget, other than raising taxes, also provided funds to hire new teachers and to expand preschool programs. Her GOP opponent, Judy Eagle, criticizes the tax increases and says that the state’s economy will recover only when the legislature offers “our existing businesses tax breaks.” She also argues for tax cuts for senior citizens so they can afford long-term care insurance and prescription drugs.
In District 10, which includes Lenoir and part of Duplin, incumbent Democratic Russell Tucker must defend another swing district. Tucker is a former county manager who was first elected in 1998 with business help against a Republican perceived as somewhat anti-industry (particularly of the swine variety). Tucker has never on the district convincingly, and the new version of it puts most of the voters in and around Kinston, which is Republican nominee Stephen LaRoque’s home base. On the other hand, Tucker will get a lot of financial help and typically runs as a moderate. On the third hand (huh?), he’s had a wobbly start by defending Gov. Mike Easley on the local government reimbursement issue (he should run far away from that) and by so far declining LaRoque’s offer to debate (he looks scared because of it). LaRoque is emphasizing his business and economic development experience. When asked by a newspaper about his campaign message, he said: “it’s about jobs and fiscal responsibility. We have a state budget that’s in chaos.”
Finally, District 11 features House Majority Leader Phil Baddour against Republican Louis Pate, the mayor of Mt. Olive and a former legislator. Baddour has the least scary challenge of the four, I think, primarily because of his prominent role and the publicity and fundraising perks that go along with it, but Pate can’t be discounted as asitting mayor of one of the major communities in the Wayne County district. He beat Baddour in the GOP surge of 1994 but then lost to him in two subsequent elections. Baddour is emphasizing his experience and poll-tested issues such as a “no-call” list to combat telemarketing and the sales-tax holiday. Pate is running as a strong anti-tax conservative and is criticizing Baddour’s leadership role in delivering several years of unbalanced budgets and tax increases.
Tomorrow: Three House races to watch in Southeastern NC.