RALEIGH — North Carolina has joined the rest of the nation in experiencing a rebirth of death penalty activism. That does not mean, however, that foes of capital punishment are winning — or even close to it.

The first wave of activism against the death penalty began in the 1960s, along with so many other movements for social change that displayed varying degrees of reasonableness. It was one of the most effective of the ’60s causes, with political pressure and litigation resulting in a brief suspension of capital punishment. Later, the U.S. Supreme Court having come to its senses and withdrawn the silly ruling that the death penalty was unconstitutional — among other reasons because the Constitution itself specifically authorizes the use of capital punishment — states began meting out justice once again to those who had committed the most egregious of murders.

Starting in the 1990s, activists citing both religious and racial-justice motivations began once more to organize against capital punishment. They claimed, falsely, that black defendants were more likely than white defendants to be executed for the same crime (a more plausible reading of the data was that juries were more likely to support the death penalty when the victim was white, a different problem and one amenable to solutions other than sparing the killers of whites and blacks alike).

Activists claimed, also falsely, that religion and morality necessarily argued against putting criminals to death. One can plausibly use the teachings of Western religions, and some Eastern ones, to justify either capital punishment or its abolition. And on balance, religiosity correlates with opposition for the death penalty among Catholics and non-white Protestants, but correlates with support for the death penalty among white Protestants, the largest single group of believers in the United States. So the picture is at least murky.

Though I believe the movement’s arguments are dubious, it has had some recent successes. The latest was the decision of Illinois Gov. George Ryan, a Republican, to spare murderers on that state’s death row. He did during the last weeks of his gubernatorial tenure, as he was leaving the job under an ethical cloud and was likely using the death penalty issue to win some cheap political points from the Left. More generally, though, there is little evidence that foes of capital punishment are close to convincing Americans of the case for abolition.

A 2002 poll from Gallup illustrates the point. Asked whether the death penalty was being meted out too often, not often enough, or the right amount, only 22 percent said too often — basically the same number that Gallup had found the previous year. Yes, those saying that the death penalty was being used the right amount fell by 10 points, to only 24 percent, but that’s because of a surge of people saying more murderers should be executed (47 percent in the 2002 poll vs. 38 percent in 2001). I’m guessing that 9/11 had a lot to do with that trend.

On the overall issue, support for the death penalty has fallen from its recent high of about 80 percent in the mid-1990s, but it is still above 70 percent. Opposition is confined to about a quarter of the population, which remains far below where it was at the apex of activism in the 1960s (in the 40 to 45 percent range) or even in the late-1950s (when it was in the 30s). Support does drop if poll respondents are given the choice of capital punishment for murderers vs. a life sentence without the possibility of parole — but keep in mind that many view this as a theoretical choice only, and don’t believe that all killers can necessarily be contained for life, given realistic expectations of penal perfection and shifting political winds.

This type of question also doesn’t distinguish between the appropriate punishment for murderers as a group vs. the appropriate treatment for the egregious murderers (those with multiple victims or gruesome M.O.s, for example) who typically draw a death sentence. Even most death-penalty supporters don’t favor its use to punish any and all homicides, and thus may answer such questions in ways that do not reflect their overall view of capital punishment’s morality and efficacy in appropriate cases.

The movement to abolish the death penalty is certainly populated by serious people of faith and good intentions, but it is also claiming more progress than can be shown. Their lack of success is good news, I believe, for the pursuit of justice and safety in a dangerous world.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.