When Sen. Jesse Helms announced he was retiring, political observers anticipated a spirited race to replace him. What a disappointment. Soil and Water Conservation commissioners generate more excitement.
With primaries two weeks away, why isn’t there more buzz? There are two primary reasons. North Carolinians have been distracted. There is no question September 11th reordered our focus. Budget crises, judicial decisions, redistricting (and the subsequent delay of normal primary dates), the drought, and North Carolina’s severe economic downturn have completely dominated the media and our attention. The Senate race isn’t on the radar screen for most citizens.
A larger reason why the Senate election is such a dud is because of the candidates. On the Republican side of the ledger Elizabeth Dole has been the nominee from the day she announced. Hand-picked by President Bush, Helms, state Republican leadership, and, most assuredly, the media, a Dole defeat is less likely than Duke winning the ACC football championship. Dole’s brain trust is wisely advising her to act like a nominee and keep her powder dry for November’s general election. No use giving anyone anything to attack. Lord knows, Jim Snyder has tried, but nothing sticks. Good political advice, but extremely boring. Dole is the star traveling around the state taking curtain calls and collecting cash from her huge audience of admirers.
Democrats have another problem. Their party is awash with more problems than General Custer at Little Big Horn and they cannot find a candidate with a combination of the charisma, the message, or the money to excite the party faithful.
Elaine Marshall’s “let’s elect a woman” message isn’t substantive enough and is being soundly trumped by Dole. Marshall cannot win and most everyone except her knows it. She would be well-advised to withdraw and keep her powder dry. She is young enough, politically attractive, and smart enough to wait for other elections, such as the gubernatorial race in 2004.
The bright Dan Blue can’t raise any money for two reasons. He hasn’t yet found a theme. Blue talks about jobs, but he hasn’t a plan for putting people back to work. More unfortunately, race is a problem for Blue. After two successive attempts, party leaders and big donors really don’t believe North Carolina is ready to elect a black U.S. senator. Besides, the party has a blueblood in Erskine Bowles. He’s rich, he’s handsome, has government experience, has been highly successful in business, and party leaders have blessed him. If Bowles was a Republican we might have a horse race, but rank-and-file Democrats don’t trust rich, pro-business, jet-set candidates, even if they did work for Bill Clinton. Secretly, Democrats know Clinton will become an election issue, as will Bowles’s previous role in trade agreements that wiped out jobs in North Carolina. Besides, Bowles has no charisma.
So we end up with Dull and Dole. Sounds like a retro election doesn’t it? No wonder nobody cares.