Ground-level ozone in North Carolina’s metropolitan areas is bad and getting worse. Right? Wrong.
Despite record high temperatures in July, North Carolina’s cities seem to be headed for a third straight year with relatively few high-ozone days. Ozone is formed when certain kinds of emissions of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compounds emitted by power plants, automobiles, and other sources mix with heat and intense sunlight. While this year’s ozone levels will not be as low as they were in the summer of 2004, which had the fewest high-ozone days on record this season, 2005 does seem to be roughly on par with 2003, which set the previous record low. As of Aug. 1, 2005, the average number of high-ozone days per monitor in North Carolina’s three major metropolitan areas was 2.2. For this same period for 2003 it was 2.4.
But for some people, good news is difficult to embrace. For example, writing in the Charlotte Observer, Steve Weber, chairman of the Mecklenburg County Air Quality Commission, laments that the good news of 2003 and 2004 “caused the community to lose focus on the regional air quality problem.” While noting that in 2002 Charlotte had 50 high-ozone days, he warned “we could reach that level this year.” But for that to happen, almost every day for the rest of the ozone season would have to exceed government standards. I wonder what kind of bet he’d be willing to wager on that outcome?
David Farren, of the left-wing Southern Environmental Law Center, heaps on even more distortions. Writing in the Triad Business Journal on July 27, he said that “over the past few summers, about one day a week the air in the Triad was unfit to breathe.” Actually, in 2004 only a single high-ozone day was registered in the Triad and that was on a monitor in Randolph County. None of the monitors in Guilford or Forsyth County had any high-ozone days. In 2003 the average ozone monitor in the Triad registered slightly over two high-ozone days for the entire season.
While this summer has had some of the hottest days on record, the ozone season is trending toward another soft landing. As of Aug. 1, Wake County had registered only two high-ozone days per monitor. This is above the number as of August 2004, but below the number registered for 2003. It should be noted that the city of Raleigh has had only one high-ozone day this season. Mecklenburg County, which typically has the highest number in the state, has averaged only four high-ozone days per monitor as of Aug. 1. This was somewhat higher than the last two years, but it was still well below the county’s five-year average of 5.2. Monitors in Guilford and Forsyth counties are showing the fewest, on average, registering less than one day as of Aug. 1. This means that Greensboro andWinston-Salem are on track to have their second-lowest ozone year on record.
While some have argued that 2003 and 2004 had few high-ozone days because the temperatures were relatively mild, this cannot be argued for 2005. The fact is that ozone-forming pollutants from all sources are declining and have been doing so for more than 20 years. This is especially true of automobiles, which get cleaner by about 10 percent each year as older, dirtier cars are replaced by newer, cleaner cars. On net, this translates into about a 6 percent reduction in auto pollution annually for North Carolina.
There is good news on the air-pollution front. North Carolinians should celebrate, especially those who claim to have environmental protection as their biggest concern. But the fact is that these same people depend on scary news to sustain both the organizations they represent and their own livelihoods. In the political arena there is nothing more unsettling for professional advocates than the realization that the problem in which they have invested their capital is actually being solved.
Dr. Roy Cordato is vice president for research and resident scholar at the John Locke Foundation.