RALEIGH – The North Carolina General Assembly is a powerful institution. Although the office of the governor has been gaining power in the past few decades, state legislators still control the purse strings. They still make the laws. They craft and enact the state’s public policies regarding education, health care, transportation, and other issues.
These facts draw the attention of the political class to the relatively few races for House and Senate that are truly competitive. Although analysts rate the latest set of legislative districts somewhat differently, and thus might end up with slight differences in their lists of contests to watch, there is general agreement about where partisan control will be determined. The following is my list of the legislative match-ups to which politically active North Carolinians should be paying the most attention.
In the Senate, where Democrats currently enjoy a 27-23 majority, there are 17 safely Democratic seats and 15 safely Republican ones. The former can be found disproportionately in the east, the latter in the west. It is virtually impossible to imagine them changing hands.
Next, I rate seven seats as moderately Democratic and seven seats as moderately Republican. In a “normal” election year, a Republican probably can’t win a moderately Democratic seat, and vice versa. But when Republicans have a particularly good turnout and do well among undecideds – as they did in 1994 – they can win some of the moderately Democratic seats. Again, vice versa.
Add the two, and you have 24 Democratic seats and 22 Republican seats. There are just four swing seats left. Two are on the coast: incumbent Democrat Scott Thomas faces Republican Chuck Tyson in the 2nd District, centered on New Bern, while incumbent Democrat Cecil Hargett faces Republican Harry Brown in the 6th, centered on Jacksonville. One swing seat is in the Piedmont, where incumbent Republican Hugh Webster of Alamance County faces Democrat Tony Foriest. Finally, in the west’s District 46, incumbent Democrat Walter Dalton of Rutherford County faces Republican Tim Testa of Cleveland County.
If Democrats win all their home territory and half of the four swings, they retain clear control at 26. If Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue is reelected, the Dems retain control by winning just one of the four.
Over in the House, the margins are tighter. By my count, there are 40 safely and 13 moderately Democratic seats (53) vs. 44 safely and nine moderately Republican seats (53). Of the remaining 14 swing seats, seven tilt slightly D: the 6th, 9th, 17th, 44th, 45th, 51st, and 81st. Five tilt slightly R: the 25th, 34th, 53rd, 86th, and 112th. Two have no tilt at all – incumbent Democrat Lorene Coates vs. newly appointed GOP challenger Mac Butner in Rowan’s 77th district, and incumbent Republican Tim Moore vs. Democrat Kathrine Hamrick in the Cleveland-based 111th District.
Because of unchallenged incumbents, Democrats have already won three swing seats. Republicans have won one. Add those to the probables, and you get 56 Democrats and 54 Republicans. Dems must win five of the remaining 10 swing seats to gain a 61-seat majority. Republicans must win seven of the 10 to get to 61, but given that several GOP legislators (the Richard Morgan faction) are operationally Democrats, the reality is that the GOP will need a strong surge – winning all 10 swings and one or two moderately Democratic seats – in order to be certain to lead the House.
That’s the legislative landscape as I see it. The topography favors the Democrats, but the incline is not so steep as to be impossible for the GOP to scale. I won’t venture to predict the outcome yet, only I’ll say that the Republicans have a better chance of controlling the Senate in 2005 than they do the House.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.