As the 2002 election season enters its last three weeks, political observers across the country and across the political spectrum are having a particularly difficult time getting a handle on it. There are a number of puzzling aspects to the current political climate.
With a shaky economic recovery and continuing uncertainty on Wall Street, the president’s party ought to be having more trouble than it is. In North Carolina and a few other states with relatively high unemployment, there is no question that economic issues are driving the debate. This dynamic should help Erskine Bowles in the U.S. Senate race and possibly Chris Kouri, the Democrat challenger to 8th District Rep. Robin Hayes. But both have other problems that make their campaign prospects modest, at best. Indeed, the economic issue may hurt Democrats down the ballot in legislative and local races, where their party may be seen as responsible for fiscal mismanagement and recent, economically destructive tax increases.
Other than in the hardest-hit states — North Carolina and the Pacific Northwest — the soft economy doesn’t seem to be helping Democrats much. Voters are attuned to the war on terrorism, the coming war in Iraq, the sniper hunt around D.C., and other matters. The GOP can’t take much comfort in this, however, in that issues of national security may not play out the way the conventional wisdom suggests. For example, contrary to expectations, Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone’s vote against the Iraq War seems to have, if anything, helped him in his tight reelection contest against Republican Norm Coleman, the former mayor of St. Paul. Minnesotans may be somewhat out of step with the rest of the country here. Republicans still gain a slight advantage to the extent that foreign policy discussion, where their candidates generally get better marks, drowns out the debate in other areas where Democrats traditionally enjoy an edge, such as health care or the environment.
Pollster John Zogby posted an interesting news story on his web site (see here: http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=4835) that goes into these issues in greater depth. The usual suspects in punditry are all over the map right now, some seeing a slight anti-incumbency trend, others seeing a Bush-led GOP resurgence, still others a shift towards Democratic candidates in races such as the Florida governor’s race and Senate contests in Arkansas, Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Jersey. Most of the “generic ballot” questions show an evenly split electorate. Bush’s popularity remains high, much higher than either Reagan or Clinton had at this point in their presidencies, but how this is likely to affect congressional races is unclear. Meanwhile, at the state level the outcomes could be somewhat contradictory; right now it looks like Democrats will experience a net gain in governorships, including big prizes like Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Republicans will experience a net gain nationwide in legislative seats, tipping some Democratic chambers over to the Republican column.
I won’t try to wriggle too far into this thicket here. If all goes according to plan, however, I will be providing and commenting on some polling the John Locke Foundation is just wrapping up in North Carolina. We’ll have new numbers on Dole-Bowles, on the battle for the legislature, approval ratings for state leaders, and public opinion on taxes, budgets, local reimbursements, business incentives, school choice, legislative reform, and a host of other election issues. Stay tuned for further developments.