RALEIGH — The “short” session of the North Carolina General Assembly convenes in early May, and it’s already becoming clear what the major agenda items will be for consideration.

First and foremost on many lawmakers’ minds will be not a particular policy issue but the political fact that the 2004 primary awaits them on July 20. That probably creates a sort of unofficial session limit (apparently imposing a real limit on the length of legislative sessions will have to wait for another legislature). For one thing, incumbents will want to wrap things up relatively quickly so they can return home to campaign. Since I’m picking up signals that we may have more than the usual number of competitive primaries this year, the incentive will be strong to allow multiple weeks before the primary vote for incumbents to get their political ducks in a row.

For another thing, with both Democratic and Republican officeholders facing spirited primary opposition, there will probably be little stomach for holding tough votes on many of the controversial issues that some legislators, executive-branch officials, activists, and interest groups are seeking in 2004. They may not be the paragons of political courage, these incumbents, but on the other hand since most bills are bad ideas — virtually by definition, given the fact that we’ve survived for a couple hundred years without them — a collective wimp-out on big votes is probably in the public interest.

Still, as the starting day of the session approaches, it isn’t difficult to see an agenda forming for debate in 2004, even if votes and passage don’t follow. A sampling would include:

* Hardy perennials in the budget category. State employees are angling for a major pay increase, in the hundreds of millions of dollars. They are joining hands with the state’s teacher union in a show of pay-raise solidarity, but I think it is basically for show. Non-teaching employees have found themselves at the short end of the stick while teachers have continued to get at least modest raises since 2000, so if it comes right down to it, the two groups will part company. More generally, a projected small budget surplus for 2003-04 won’t help much in the coming 2004-05 fiscal year, for which there will likely be a gap of half a billion dollars or more between what state politicians want to spend and what state taxpayers are going to pay in at current rates.

* Tax changes. Gov. Mike Easley is reportedly going to propose some tax relief in his 2004-05 budget adjustment plan, but legislative leaders aren’t yet sold. They seem to be in more of a spending mood than Easley is. Senate leader Marc Basnight is also rumored to be seeking support again for some kind of excise-tax increase, either on cigarettes or alcohol or both, to fund several pet spending initiatives. House Speaker Jim Black and Co-Speaker Richard Morgan are said to be cool to the idea of raising taxes this year, particularly with competitive primaries scheduled for just after the short session.

* Incentives. My sense from traveling around the state this week and talking to legislators, candidates, and reporters is that the issue of state subsidies for private business is becoming an increasingly contentious and politically charged matter. Expect campaign ads and tough questions in both the primary and general election. Nevertheless, Easley and key legislators are clearly pushing ahead with additional incentive proposals for the 2004 short session.

* Tort reform. Both sides in the debate over medical-malpractice reform will try to force votes on the issue to identify more precisely their allies and opponents in coming political campaigns.

* School-year changes. Advocates of state legislation to move the starting date for the public-school year forward to Labor Day seem to be gaining momentum, but education officials say that without a shortened calendar of school days the result would be to encroach into the early summer. This is one of those issues that may seem to lack the significance of major tax and budgetary concerns but that offers the clarity and relevance to everyday life that makes average voters pay attention to the otherwise befuddling goings-on of the General Assembly in Raleigh.

Other issues will no doubt come to the fore over the next few weeks, but as I indicated at the outset, it is hard to imagine a lot of legislative movement or risk-taking this year. They will hope for the best on last-minute revenue collections, try to fund normal expansion items in the 2004-05 budget bill while avoiding tax increases, and then seek the most expedient way to extricate themselves from Raleigh.

Good. Perhaps a midsummer primary isn’t such a bad idea after all.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.