RALEIGH – Here are a few early reactions as the 2002 primary results come in:

* Dan Blue should have done better than he did. It looks like the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate won’t be close – indeed, it seems likely that Erskine Bowles will win far more than the 40 percent he would have needed to avoid a runoff (that wasn’t possible this year due to time). Basically, Blue shot an airball. I kept wondering throughout the Senate race why Elaine Marshall, who never had a realistic shot at the goal, kept stealing the ball from Blue. She earned more free media than he did, and seemed to get quoted more often in print and broadcast stories about “the challengers to the frontrunner talking about NAFTA” and the like. Some was wrong with Blue’s campaign, both in personnel and in message. Bowles didn’t run a great campaign, but Blue ran a poor one, in both sense of the term.

* A few baskets tonight were three-point shots. Chris Kouri, a Charlotteattorney, looks like he might just win the Democratic nod in the 8th Congressional District, beating Fayetteville attorney and former state representative Billy Richardson, who acted like a frontrunner throughout the race. Kouri kept emphasizing his issues, working behind the scenes, and complaining about Richardson’s use of personal wealth to fund the campaign. Something worked in this come-from-behind victory.

Over in the new 13th Congressional District, State Sen. Brad Miller had a fairly easy time of it in a district he basically drew for himself. Respected Sen. Bill Martin of Greensboro did not pull in enough liberal and African-American voters to make it work, and indeed came in third behind fellow Guilford Dem and former U.S. Rep. Robin Britt. But Martin has a legitimate beef about how Raleigh’s largest black political organization went about making its endorsements this year (it favored Miller). Along with the loss by Blue and Court of Appeals candidate Marcus Williams (who also complained about the Raleigh group’s endorsement process), Martin’s loss is likely to cause some consternation among black leaders and voters about their lack of success in Democratic nominations for key races. Could affect enthusiasm and turnout in November.

Along similar lines: in a legislative stunner, my friend Deb Ross won theDemocratic nomination in the 38th House District. A heavily black electorate in the strongly Democratic Raleigh-area district seems to have split some of its vote between Alexander Killens, whom many thought to be the early leader, and Gene Jordan, largely unknown at the outset but surprisingly effective late in the race in getting his name out there and contesting Killens for endorsements. I suspect Deb, who has made a lot of friends as the longtime director of the state’s ACLU chapter and probably won a good share of the African-American vote outright, is very pleased with her success in overturning the conventional wisdom about race and representation. It probably helped that Killens is basically a crook. I won’t agree with Deb Ross often, but I’m glad she’s going to be in the House.

And also in Raleigh, a bitter Republican primary in the 34th House District turned into a bit of a rout. In a low-turnout affair, Don Munford beat off a spirited challenge from Al Nunn to take the nomination in a seat being vacated by Rep. Art Pope, a longtime friend and colleague of mine. Munford’s last-minute endorsements by Pope and Sen. Jesse Helms could well have secured him the easier-than-expected victory.

* In other closely watched legislative matchups around the state, there are some intriguing trends that I’ll write about more comprehensively tomorrow. In brief, in the races where pro-lottery forces attempted to take out anti-lottery lawmakers or otherwise use the issue to nominate lottery supporters, they seem to have failed. Most notably, Rep. Edd Nye of Bladen, a lottery foe, defeated fellow incumbent Nurham Warwick of Clinton, a lottery supporter, in a Democratic primary that revolved largely around the lottery as a single issue. Warwick used the same language, even the same ad copy, that pro-lottery lobbyists are using statewide. He got beat 54 percent to 46 percent. This should put to rest the myth that the lottery is North Carolina’s equivalent of Social Security – a third rail for politicians who seem to take stand against the conventional wisdom.

Nye has grabbed the rail, and prevailed. So did Republican Rep. Jeff Barnhardt down in Cabarrus, who fended off two pro-lottery challengers in the GOP primary. So did Democratic Rep. Ronnie Smith, who defeated pro-lottery former Rep. Bruce Ethridge in House 13. So did Sen. Ellie Kinnaird, who beat fellow Democratic Sen. Howard Lee in Senate 23. So did Republican Sen. Phil Berger in Senate 26, who beat fellow incumbent and pro-lottery Sen. Bob Shaw. Get the picture? The only major counterexample was in House 64, where longtime Republican Rep. Cary Allred, who favors the lottery, turned back a challenge from anti-lottery candidate Keith Whited.

The other issue is the sales tax. Some Republican lawmakers were criticized for voting against a bill to authorize local governments to impose another half-cent sales tax starting in January (taking the combined sales tax rate to 7 percent for last least six months). Of course, Republicans tend to vote against tax hikes. It’s their nature. But in several key races, former or current local officials ran against GOP incumbents on the grounds that the latter were not doing their duty to protect local budgets via additional revenues.

Like the “lottery is a winning issue” gambit, this appears to have failed. It looks right now like all of the anti-tax hike incumbents – examples include Sen. Austin Allran in the 44th, Rep. Debbie Clary in the 110th, Rep. Mark Hilton in the 88th, and Rep. Rex Baker in the 91st – will win renomination. Looks like a mandate to me for Republicans to stick to their guns on taxes.

* A few other races of note. Few primaries got as nasty as the Republican contest in the 45th Senate District between two incumbents, Virginia Foxx and Ken Moore. Foxx seems to have won this one easily, however, suggesting that Moore’s strange campaign tactics – like calling Foxx an “ACLU liberal” – were borne of desperation instead of sheer stupidity. Good, that makes him look a little better. In the new 35th Senate District centered in Union County, conservative stalwart Rep. Fern Shubert also won a surprisingly easy contest in a crowded field. And in a result likely to warm the hearts of Republican partisans statewide, wayward GOP Rep. Buck Buchanan, who kept voting with the Democrats on tax and other issues, lost his reelection bid to Spruce Pine Mayor Phillip Frye in the 84th House District.

Two former Republican lawmakers – Sen. Don East and Rep. Robert Brawley – lost bids to return to the General Assembly, but former Rep. Steve Wood will be back. Finally, my “N.C. Spin” colleague Teena Little of Southern Pines got upended in the new Senate 22 by another Moore County Republican, Harris Blake, who ran as a conservative against in a moderate in a county where the intraparty division runs very deep.

That’s all for now. More to come.